社服行业2025年中期投资策略：供需两端酝酿新变，关注线下重塑、AI应用、体验消费三条主线

Group 1 - The report highlights the structural prosperity of service consumption within the overall consumption landscape, indicating that while overall consumption growth is slowing, service-related consumption is on the rise, with service sector PMI consistently outperforming manufacturing PMI [12][20][23] - The demand side is characterized by three new trends: price-performance ratio, emotional value, and overseas expansion, with the price-performance ratio expected to be a key driver in the Chinese consumption sector [20][23][30] - Emotional and experiential consumption is becoming a focal point for consumers, with the emotional economy projected to reach 23.1 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong demand for content and experience-driven products [23][27] Group 2 - The supply side is witnessing accelerated chain store development and integration of supply chains, with offline consumption becoming increasingly standardized and efficient, particularly in the beverage and hotel sectors [36][41] - Instant retail is identified as a significant growth area for consumption internet platforms, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 20% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a shift towards integrating online and offline retail [60][66] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain capabilities in the restaurant and beverage sectors, with stronger supply chain management expected to lead to increased market concentration and competitive advantages for leading brands [52][53] Group 3 - The report identifies three main investment themes: the reshaping of offline business models, the application of AI to enhance service efficiency, and the high demand for experiential consumption in tourism and sports [7][8][54] - In the offline business model reshaping, companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are recommended for their roles in the rapid growth of instant retail and their strategic expansions into offline retail [8][60][78] - The application of AI is seen as a transformative force across various sectors, enhancing efficiency in human resources, education, and exhibition services, with companies like Keri International recommended for investment [54][54]