Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-04 12:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotai Junan (601211) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that after the merger, Guotai Junan has achieved steady growth in performance, with all business lines contributing positively. The company reported adjusted revenues of 135.4 billion and 236.97 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 98.3% and 76.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.0 billion and 157.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 213.7% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The brokerage business generated revenues of 30.8 billion and 57.3 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 95.1% and 86.3%. The average daily trading volume for stocks was 14,872 billion and 16,135 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 56.8% and 63.9% year-on-year [2]. - The investment banking segment reported revenues of 6.8 billion and 13.9 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 30.5% and 19.4%. The total underwriting scale for IPOs, refinancing, and bond underwriting reached 37.5 billion, 1,195.1 billion, and 7,336.4 billion yuan, showing significant increases of 168.9%, 1,468.5%, and 48.6% respectively [2]. - The asset management business achieved revenues of 14.1 billion and 25.8 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 40.6% and 34.2%. The non-monetary public fund management scale reached 504 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [3]. Self-Operated and Credit Business - The credit business saw revenues of 24.9 billion and 31.9 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 259.8% and 205.4%. The margin trading balance was 18,504 billion yuan at the end of June 2025, reflecting a 25.0% increase year-on-year [4]. - The self-operated business reported revenues of 53.4 billion and 93.5 billion yuan for Q2 and H1 of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 109.0% and 89.6%. The financial asset scale reached 802.9 billion yuan, up 85.0% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the merger has allowed Guotai Junan to share resources and complement each other's strengths, which is expected to further solidify its leading position in the industry. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 230 billion, 214 billion, and 235 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 76.3%, -6.9%, and 9.7% [5].