Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-05 00:43Report Date - The report date is September 5, 2025 [1] Core Views - The ADP employment in the US in August was lower than expected, but the market reaction was muted, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate [2][20] - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, and short - term adjustment thinking is recommended [3][23] - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the bond market is cautious, with insufficient upward momentum [4][32] - After the military parade, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coking coal and coke market will be mainly in a volatile trend in the short term [5][56] - Macro factors strongly support copper prices in the short term, and copper prices are likely to continue to be volatile and relatively strong [6][78] - The fundamentals of US natural gas have marginally improved in the short term, but the medium - term downward trend remains [7][85] Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US officially implemented the US - Japan trade agreement, and Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [14] - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in August was 52, higher than expected [15] - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, slightly lower than expected, indicating a cooling employment market. Gold price fluctuations may increase [16] - Investment advice: In the short term, the multi - empty game near the historical high of gold prices intensifies, and the volatility increases [17] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The New York Fed President predicted that interest rate cuts would be appropriate in the future, and the US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook [18] - The US ADP employment in August was lower than expected, but the market reaction was muted, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. Short - term investment advice: The US dollar will remain volatile [20][21] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was significantly adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.25%. The market volume decreased, and the over - valuation pressure was released. Short - term investment advice: Reduce long positions in stock index futures or increase the hedging ratio [22][23][24] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Stephen Miran emphasized the independence of the Fed, and Fed Williams said that interest rate cuts would be appropriate in the future. The US ADP employment data in August was lower than expected, but the market risk appetite remained high. Investment advice: The US stock market will be volatile and relatively strong under the expectation of interest rate cuts [25][26][30] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is worried about the strength of the stock market, with insufficient upward momentum. Investment advice: Long positions can be held, but do not chase the high [31][32][33] Commodity News and Comments Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 9.34 million tons of soybeans in August, an increase of 16% year - on - year, and is expected to export 6.75 million tons in September. The weekly export sales report of the US will be released on Friday. Investment advice: The futures price will be mainly volatile, and continue to pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [35][36][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 2.07% month - on - month. The market is waiting for MPOB and USDA data. Investment advice: In the short term, it will continue to be volatile, and the view of going long at low prices in the medium - long term remains unchanged [38] Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate and inventory of starch enterprises both decreased, but the supply - demand situation remained weak. Investment advice: The difference between futures and spot prices is at a low level, and the further weakening space is expected to be small [39] Agricultural Products (Corn) - The deep - processing demand for corn increased slightly this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The price is expected to be volatile before the production - determination survey and may decline after that. Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high prices [40][41][42] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton planting area in India decreased slightly year - on - year. The export orders of Indian cotton products decreased, and the government may purchase a record amount of cotton. The external market is in a weak pattern. Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures will be mainly volatile, and the market is not optimistic during the new cotton listing period [43][45][47] Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cui'erzhuang market decreased. The futures price decreased significantly, and the short - term downward trend may continue. Investment advice: Be cautious about entering the market and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [47][48] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Japan's coal imports in July increased. The coal price continued its seasonal weakness, and the price may decline faster after the military parade, but it is expected to be supported at around 750 yuan [49] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Indonesia launched an anti - dumping investigation into Wuhan Iron and Steel Group's hot - rolled coils. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, and the demand was weak. Investment advice: The steel price will be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the release of demand [50][51][52] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first blasting at the North Pit of the Iron Valley Mine in Australia was successful. The iron ore price is in a volatile market, and it is supported in the short term but may face pressure in the future. Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure on finished products and molten iron in 2 - 3 weeks [53] Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects the sow capacity utilization rate to reach over 90% by the end of the year. The short - term spot price lacks a significant upward driver, and the supply in the second half of the year remains loose. Investment advice: Treat the November contract with an interval thinking, and wait for a good opportunity to go long on the January and May contracts [55] Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coal mines are gradually resuming production after the military parade. The supply is stable in the short term, but the demand side is under pressure. Investment advice: The market will be mainly volatile without policy influence in the short term [56][57] Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry. The production of polysilicon in September may increase, and the downstream inventory is relatively abundant. Investment advice: When the futures price falls below the spot price, the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies increases. The price is expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [58][59][61] Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. Investment advice: The price will be between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and pay attention to interval trading opportunities [62][63] Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory is at a high level seasonally, and the domestic supply may tighten while the demand may improve. Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign anti - arbitrage [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the domestic social inventory increased. The short - term macro environment is positive for zinc prices. Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out [67][68] Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong. Investment advice: The nickel price is likely to be range - bound, and it is more cost - effective to go long at the low end of the range [69][70][71] Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for lithium concentrate. The supply may tighten in September, and the fundamentals support the price. Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the warehouse receipt peaks and the basis strengthens, and also pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [72][73] Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The International Copper Association became an official observer of the Basel Convention. Freeport McMoRan is promoting expansion projects and calling for US incentives. Macro factors support copper prices in the short term. Investment advice: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage [74][75][79] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of domestic liquefied petroleum gas decreased, and the inventory increased. Investment advice: The market will be mainly volatile in the short term [80][81][82] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon market decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose this year. Investment advice: The CEA price will be volatile and weak in the short term [83][84] Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased by 55 Bcf week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but the medium - term downward trend remains. Investment advice: The gas price will be in a volatile adjustment in the short term [85][86][87] Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price decreased, and the load of domestic and overseas PX changed little. Investment advice: The unilateral price will be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive arbitrage opportunity [88][89][90] Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal weaving load did not continue to increase, and the new orders were insufficient. The PTA supply decreased recently, but there is an expectation of new device production in October. Investment advice: It will be in a short - term volatile adjustment [91][92][93] Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply and demand situation is different in different regions. Investment advice: The spot price may stop rising and fall, and the futures price will be volatile and weak [94][95] Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was generally stable. The fundamentals of pulp are not good. Investment advice: The market will be volatile and weak [96][97] Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was stable with a slight decline. The fundamentals are under pressure in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Investment advice: The Indian anti - dumping may have a negative impact, but the downward space is limited [98] Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The capacity utilization rate of styrene downstream industries changed this week. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the Q4 outlook is weak. Investment advice: The short - term inventory pressure may ease marginally, but the Q4 outlook is weak, and pay attention to the policy variables [100] Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly, and the low - price transactions increased. The industry maintains a 20% production reduction target, and the downstream demand is transitioning to the off - season. Investment advice: The absolute price follows the polyester raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [101][102] Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Investment advice: Adopt the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the supply - side disturbances [103][104] Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The market lacks a strong driver, and the cost provides weak support. Investment advice: Be cautious about unilateral operations, and focus on arbitrage operations, such as going long on glass and shorting soda ash when the price difference expands [105] Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk announced a suspension plan during the Chinese Golden Week. The current shipping capacity is under pressure, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile thinking, pay attention to the shorting opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the increase in December is reversed [106][107][108]