格林大华期货早盘提示-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season. This week, port inventories continued to accumulate significantly, and inland inventories also increased. Import volume is expected to increase significantly from August to September. In early September, the MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing is planned to restart, and the 200,000 - ton MTO of Zhongyuan Ethylene is expected to restart. Recently, there are rumors that Iranian methanol plants will undergo rotational maintenance in October. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, methanol prices are oscillating slightly stronger, with a reference range of 2350 - 2450 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 28 yuan to 2408 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2245 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 5719 lots to 463,900 lots, and short positions increased by 2745 lots to 559,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 71.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 113,300 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.31% [1] - Demand: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 75,400 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 241,300 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%. The olefin operating rate is 87.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%; the methane chloride operating rate is 85.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 37.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; the MTBE operating rate is 62.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [1] - Macro - news: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that he supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further interest rate cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season, with significant inventory accumulation at ports and increased inland inventories. Expected import increase from August to September, planned restarts of MTO devices, and rumors of Iranian plant maintenance lead to a situation of strong expectations and weak reality, resulting in slightly stronger price oscillations [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to buy at the low end within the range, or pay attention to the 10 - 01 reverse spread and 15 positive spread opportunities. For cross - variety arbitrage, pay attention to going long on methanol and short on urea [1]