五矿期货早报有色金属-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high due to the U.S. economic data not exceeding expectations, and the risk in the domestic equity market has been released. The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector is positive [2][6][7][10]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some are supported by supply shortages or expected demand increases, while others face over - supply problems [2][6][7][8]. Summary by Metal Copper - The LME copper price fell 0.83% to $9891/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 to 158375 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons (SMM caliber). The price is supported by tight raw material supply and approaching peak season [2]. - The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 79200 - 80500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9800 - 10000 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price fell 0.92% to $2590/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20625 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term due to mixed factors [4]. - The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20560 - 20820 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2570 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - The SHFE lead index fell 0.03% to 16861 yuan/ton. The lead market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, but with the high Fed rate - cut expectation, the lead price is expected to be strong [6]. Zinc - The SHFE zinc index fell 0.73% to 22121 yuan/ton. The zinc market has an over - supply situation in the industry, but due to the high Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [7]. Tin - Tin prices continued to trade in a narrow range. Supply is expected to decline significantly in September, and demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro environment is positive, and the nickel price is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index was flat, and the LC2511 contract rose 2.14%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and the reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2511 contract today is 71200 - 75400 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.4% to 2978 yuan/ton. After a sharp decline, the downside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract fell 0.46% to 12855 yuan/ton. The market has entered a consolidation phase due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak downstream demand [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell 0.35% to 20215 yuan/ton. The price is expected to remain high in the short term due to the approaching peak season, supply disruptions, and increased market activity [18].