工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support level of RMB 8,300 per ton. Continued attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. - The polysilicon price is expected to have amplified fluctuations and is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of RMB 55,000 - 56,000 per ton. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at RMB 8,950 per ton compared with the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at RMB 9,400 per ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.29% to RMB 8,515 per ton compared with the previous day [1]. - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) and oxygenated 553 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming) and 421 in different regions (East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Sichuan, Kunming) either remained flat or had a small change (the average price of oxygenated 553 in Tianjin Port decreased by 0.55%) [1]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In addition, the southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates, so the supply is increasing steadily [1]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments; in the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream as a whole has insufficient willingness to stock up at a low level [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at RMB 50 per kilogram compared with the previous day; the price of N - type re - feed material remained flat at RMB 51.5 per kilogram; the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at RMB 49 per kilogram; the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at RMB 48.5 per kilogram; the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.07% to RMB 52,195 per ton compared with the previous day [1]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output will approach 110,000 tons in July and increase to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - On the demand side, many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August. The trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly last week, the prices of some low - priced resources continued to rise, and the polysilicon inventory also decreased significantly. The price increase is gradually being transmitted downstream from the silicon material end, but the terminal demand pressure is large. Due to the consideration of IRR in terminal projects, the components are squeezed by both cost and demand, and the price increase faces great resistance, which may lead to reverse price transmission in the industrial chain [1]. Other Information - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 4 was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared with last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 117,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 420,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week (excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.) [1]. - Zhongneng Energy's solar power project in Dalate Banner, with a total installed capacity of 500,000 kilowatts and a supporting energy storage scale of 75MW/150MWh, was successfully connected to the grid on August 31 [1].