研究所晨会观点精萃：美国就业市场放缓强化降息预期，全球风险偏好继续升温-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US labor market is cooling, and Fed officials' remarks have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut, leading to a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a weakening short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Treasury bonds will likely remain at a high level and fluctuate, also suggesting cautious waiting and seeing. In the commodity sector, black metals will be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will be fluctuating strongly, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US August "small non - farm" was below expectations, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and private enterprise recruitment slowed in August, indicating a cooling labor market. Fed officials said that a rate cut over time is appropriate, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [2]. - Domestic: China's August official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 but was below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. There is an enhanced expectation of US easing and domestic easing, but the domestic market sentiment has cooled [2]. - Asset performance: The stock index will fluctuate in the short term; treasury bonds will be at a high - level and fluctuate; black metals will be weakly fluctuating; non - ferrous metals will be strongly fluctuating; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level. All suggest cautious operations [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and communications, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The fundamentals and policies are similar to the macro - finance situation. The short - term upward macro - drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot market was stable on Thursday, and the futures price continued to be weak. In the traditional peak demand season, the actual demand was still weak, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreasing by nearly 300,000 tons and the inventory increasing by nearly 320,000 tons. Due to phased production restrictions, the steel output decreased by 236,800 tons this week, and the iron - water output is expected to decline slightly. The first round of coke price increase failed, and a price cut started. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong on Thursday. Phased production restrictions in the northern region reduced ore demand and affected port desilting volume. However, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and they are likely to resume production next week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in Inner Mongolia was stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity expected in October. In Ningxia, the operation was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The silicon iron price has cost support, and the production reduction intention is not strong. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply decreased this week, but there is still supply pressure in the new capacity launch cycle, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The demand was stable week - on - week, and the profit decreased. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.3.5 Glass - The main glass contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the profit increased slightly. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - US job openings in July dropped to the lowest level in 10 months, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. However, a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, which may boost copper prices briefly [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices were weak on Thursday, and the inventory continued to increase. Although it is the peak season, demand is poor. The mid - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. A Fed rate cut in September may support the futures price [7][8]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. The supply of tin ore will be more abundant in the future. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory decreased last week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract rose 1.05% on Thursday. The inventory is gradually being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.12% on Thursday. Polysilicon is fluctuating at a high level, and industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract rose 0.55% on Thursday. There are expectations of capacity integration in the market. Polysilicon is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose 0.17% overnight. The USDA weekly export sales report was postponed. The market is waiting for the September 12 USDA report to see if it will revise the US soybean yield. The Midwest is experiencing drought, which has reduced the excellent - good rate [11]. 3.5.2 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic oilseeds have preventive procurement in the third quarter, with high import volumes and increasing operating rates, resulting in a large phased inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The price of US soybeans is likely to be under pressure after September 12 if the yield remains unchanged. Brazilian export quotes are rising. The future trend of rapeseed meal depends on Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3.5.3 Oils - CBOT soybean oil futures rose overnight, and BMD palm oil futures also increased slightly. September palm oil exports are expected to be strong, but the future market depends on production data. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons. Domestic palm oil imports have a deeper profit inversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.5.4 Corn - New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. In North China, corn prices are stable, with tight channel inventories. The port inventory is low, and the futures market has rebounded, which is positive for the market [13]. 3.5.5 Pigs - The spot price of pigs has rebounded and is weakly stable. In September, both supply and demand of pigs will increase. The cost of secondary fattening is at a low - profit level, and there is support from the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle. The pig price should not be overly pessimistic in September [14].