中泰期货晨会纪要-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trading instruments are classified into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish categories [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, trading instruments are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [6]. - A series of macro - economic events at home and abroad have an impact on the financial and commodity markets, and different trading strategies are proposed for various trading products in different sectors [8][13][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - China's Ministry of Commerce announced the first anti - circumvention investigation ruling, and the central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of repurchase operations. Two departments issued an action plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry. The real estate market in 28 cities has supply changes. The US - Japan trade agreement is implemented, and the US has a soaring trade deficit in July. The US Department of Justice investigated a Fed governor, and the ADP employment data in August was lower than expected [8][9][10] Macro Finance - Stock Index Futures: Short - term may be mainly oscillating, and long - term consider buying on dips [13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Adopt a curve - steepening strategy, keep the idea of steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end interest rate curves in the medium - and long - term, and participate in short - term rebounds with appropriate stop - loss and take - profit [14][15] Black - Steel and Iron Ore: The supply policy has limited impact on the market. The market may have a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season". Steel continues to have limited downward adjustment space and maintains an oscillating trend in the medium - term, while iron ore can be lightly short - sold [17][18]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may continue to fall from high - level oscillations, and attention should be paid to production progress and enterprise production conditions [18]. - Ferroalloys: Consider buying silicon iron 10 contracts on dips, and maintain a medium - and long - term strategy of short - selling manganese silicon on rebounds [19]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash can be short - sold on rallies, and glass is recommended to be observed for the time being [20] Non - ferrous and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum can be bought on dips, while alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term and short - sold on rallies in the medium - term [20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [23]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon's price is mainly affected by policy progress and is in a fierce game [24] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term [27]. - Sugar: Adopt a bearish strategy [29]. - Eggs: Temporarily treat it as a rebound and be cautious about the upside [32]. - Apples: Consider buying on dips or using a positive spread strategy [32]. - Corn: Short - sell the 01 contract [33]. - Red Dates: Short - sell on rallies [35]. - Pigs: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and consider low - buying the 01 contract in the medium - and long - term [36] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Consider short - selling on rallies [38]. - Fuel Oil: Its price will follow the change of crude oil prices, and the short - term price range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [39]. - Plastics: Polyolefins will oscillate weakly [41]. - Rubber: Consider buying on dips [42]. - Methanol: Temporarily reduce short positions [43]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a bullish strategy [44]. - Asphalt: It follows crude oil and is stronger than crude oil, and the short - term price range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [44]. - Polyester Industry Chain: Each variety in the polyester industry chain will mainly oscillate weakly in the short - term [46]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Adopt a bearish strategy in the long - term [47]. - Paper Pulp: Observe whether the port destocking continues and the improvement of spot trading [47]. - Logs: Observe the market in the short - term [49]. - Urea: Adopt a bearish strategy [49]. - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [50]