国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High - level shock [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range shock [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range shock [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range shock [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range shock [2][10] - Coke: Weak shock due to downward - revised cost expectations [2][13] - Coking coal: Valuation correction with increasing supply increment expectations [2][13] - Logs: Repeated shocks [2][15] 2. Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market show different trends, mainly including high - level shocks, wide - range shocks, weak shocks, and repeated shocks, which are affected by factors such as fundamentals, cost expectations, and supply increments [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.87%. The previous day's position was 506,983 lots, an increase of 41,053 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly rose. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Trend Intensity: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The previous day's RB2510 closing price was 3,035 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.39%; HC2510 was 3,329 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.39%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. There were also changes in basis and spreads [6] - Macro and Industry News: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, and the export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.2%. From January to July, cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. On September 4, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different changes. In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also changed [7][8] - Trend Intensity: Rebar: 0; Hot - rolled coil: 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and related raw materials also showed changes. There were changes in basis, near - far - month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [10] - Macro and Industry News: On September 4, the prices of silicon - iron 72 and silicon - manganese 6517 in different regions changed. Tshipi and Transnet reached a 10 - year manganese export capacity allocation agreement [11][12] - Trend Intensity: Ferrosilicon: 0; Silicomanganese: 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's JM2601 closing price was 1,094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan or 1.0%; J2601 was 1,581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. There were also changes in basis and spreads [13] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [13] - Trend Intensity: Coke: 0; Coking coal: 0 [13] Logs - Fundamentals: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts. Spot prices of various types of logs in different markets had different changes, and there were also changes in spreads [16] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [18] - Trend Intensity: 0 [18]