软商品日报：主产国产量预期乐观，白糖震荡为主-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate as extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production, while summer cold drink consumption boosts demand and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but are still expected to be within the annual forecast range [1][3] - Cotton prices are also expected to oscillate. Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. With decreasing commercial inventories and the upcoming cotton textile peak season, cotton prices have bottom support [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar decreased from 16.14 to 16.05, a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton increased from 66.05 to 66.23, a change of 0.27% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 increased by 0.34%, and Xinjiang cotton decreased from 15400.0 to 15300.0, a change of - 0.65% [4] Spread Quick View - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 decreasing by 23.08% and CF01 - 05 decreasing by 20.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA decreased from 77.95 to 77.5, a change of - 0.58% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit increased from 1550.0 to 1570.0, a change of 1.29% [4] Options - Implied volatilities and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided, e.g., SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0882 and SR601 has a historical volatility of 6.33 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13202.0 to 12782.0, a change of - 3.18%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6131.0 to 5996.0, a change of - 2.20% [4] Conclusions and Strategy Recommendations - Sugar: Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but the annual total is still expected to be within the forecast range [3] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, so cotton prices are supported [3] - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]