LPG产业风险管理日报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term LPG prices are mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwined to influence the market, while the fundamentals remain largely unchanged [4] - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have increased the risk premium of crude oil [5] - Crude oil is under downward pressure in the future due to increasing supply and decreasing demand; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting; US oil inventory data is bearish [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 11.58%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.52% [3] 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2510 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits; also, sell PG2510C4500 call options with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase based on orders, for short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2510 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4200 - 4300 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2510P4200 put options with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3] 3.3 Industry Data Summary - Price Data: On September 4, 2025, Brent was at 66.88 (down 0.51 from the previous day and 0.77 from the previous week), WTI at 63.34 (down 0.43 and 0.98 respectively), and LPG's main contract closed at 4368 (down 48 and 41 respectively) [8][10] - Spread Data: For example, the LPG - FEI spread was 478.56 (down 36.11 from the previous day and 121.37 from the previous week), and the LPG - CP spread was 112.77 (down 68.13 and 259.39 respectively) [10] - Month - spread Data: The LPG08 - 09 month - spread was 392 (down 38 from the previous day and up 60 from the previous week), and the LPG09 - 10 month - spread was - 641 (up 55 and down 41 respectively) [10] - Ratio Data: The MB/WTI ratio was 0.48 (up 0.03 from the previous day and down 0.01 from the previous week), and the FEI/Brent ratio was 0.66 (unchanged from the previous day and up 0.03 from the previous week) [10] - Profit Data: The LPG's盘面 import profit - FEI was - 336.84 (down 44.37 from the previous day and 40.29 from the previous week), and the PDH盘面 profit - PG was 195.8 (up 40.2 and down 33.85 respectively) [10] - Freight Data: The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 74.667 (down 3.833 from the previous day and 9.166 from the previous week), from the US to Europe was 76.5 (down 0.625 and 4.5 respectively), and from the US Gulf to the Far East was 139 (down 1.333 and 9.417 respectively) [10]