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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250905
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-09-05 01:51

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation mode. The spot market for linear LL has some price cuts by Sinopec, while for drawing PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina keep prices stable. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The polyolefin spot prices are generally weak at the beginning of the month, and whether the stop - fall in the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7225, 7220, and 7170 respectively, with price drops of - 22, - 20, and - 15 and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.28%, and - 0.21% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 235618, 5386, and 212, and the open interests were 502560, 31934, and 8450 with changes of 12101, 382, and - 77 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 50, and - 55, compared to previous values of 7, 55, and - 62 [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6949, and 6828 respectively, with price drops of - 15, - 16, and - 32 and declines of - 0.22%, - 0.23%, and - 0.47% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 207771, 5643, and 396, and the open interests were 595380, 45582, and 5316 with changes of 15647, 379, and - 273 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 10, 121, and - 111, compared to previous values of - 11, 105, and - 94 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2381 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 587 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2385 yuan/ton, 6630 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Market: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets are 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 6950 yuan/ton [2]. Oil Price Information - On Thursday (September 4, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.72 - $63.84. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.99 per barrel, down $0.61 or 0.90% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.35 - $67.41 [2].