合成橡胶：仍维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, under a neutral fundamental situation, synthetic rubber is expected to be in an interval - running stage, with pressure above and support below. The upper pressure comes from the high - supply pattern of butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as relatively high short - term butadiene arrivals. The lower support is due to the long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling. Overall, butadiene rubber is expected to move within an interval, mainly fluctuating with macro - sentiment during the week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 11,810 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25,435 lots to 130,504 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,330 lots to 26,614 lots, and the trading volume increased by 144,632 ten - thousand yuan to 770,146 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 25 to 90, the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 increased by 20 to 20. The prices of North China and East China butadiene (private) remained unchanged, South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton, Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,900 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) and (model 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,350 yuan/ton and 11,350 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton to 9,350 yuan/ton and 9,575 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Fundamental Indicators: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 76.2727%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,285 yuan/ton, and the butadiene rubber profit remained unchanged at - 185 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - As of September 3, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from the previous period. The arrival of imported ships was relatively concentrated during the week, which led to a significant increase in the inventory of sample ports. And some trade volumes were for sale, so inventory changes should be carefully monitored [2]. - As of September 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.60%. The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber was sufficient this period. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China were expected to undergo maintenance, and the raw material market was generally strong, so some traders and downstream buyers followed up. However, the continuous volatile trend of the synthetic rubber futures market still affected the upward movement of the trading center. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3].