尿素：短期有反复，趋势仍承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the urea futures price may fluctuate. The commodity sentiment in the night session showed a slight recovery, and the results of the Indian tender's quantity and price are out. Attention should be paid to spot trading and the overall equity market sentiment during the day [2]. - In the medium term, the trend remains under pressure. The urea warehouse receipt quantity is at a high level, and the futures valuation maintains a high premium, with the static valuation of the urea futures price being relatively high. In the fourth - quarter supply - demand balance, although there is export volume support, due to weak domestic demand, the UR2601 contract is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, and the terminal value of the 01 contract is expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,713 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 152,066 lots, the open interest of the 01 contract was 234,351 lots (up 1,623 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 7,928 tons (up 723 tons), the trading volume was 520.847 million yuan (down 471.687 million yuan), the Shandong regional basis was - 14 (down 10), the basis of Fengxi - Disk was - 104 (unchanged), the basis of Dongguang - Disk was - 4 (unchanged), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 50 (up 6) [1]. - Spot Market: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,680 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,590 yuan/ton (down 20), Hebei Dongguang was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged). The trader price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (down 10), and in Shanxi it was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged). The supply - side important indicators showed that the operating rate was 79.64% (down 0.74%), and the daily output was 186,300 tons (down 1,740 tons) [1]. Industry News - On September 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 0.0092 million tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises varied, with the overall inventory level increasing slightly. Some enterprises in the southwest and northwest regions fulfilled export orders, resulting in a decrease in inventory, while some enterprises saw an increase in inventory due to a decline in downstream operations and reduced inflows [2].