对二甲苯：成本坍塌，单边趋势转弱，PTA：月差正套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - Positive Outlook: Rubber (trend intensity: 1) [12][14] - Neutral Outlook: PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, LPG, Propylene, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Line) (trend intensities: 0) [2][17][20] - Negative Outlook: PX, Glass, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC (trend intensities: -1) [2][52][62] 2. Core Views - Commodity - Specific Trends: Each commodity has its own supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment factors influencing its price trend. For example, PX is affected by OPEC+ production expectations and downstream PTA pressure; Rubber is supported by raw material supply disruptions and inventory reduction [6][16]. - Market Uncertainties: Many commodities face uncertainties from factors such as policy changes (e.g., anti - deflation and anti - involution policies), cost fluctuations (e.g., oil and coal prices), and supply - demand imbalances (e.g., new产能 releases and seasonal demand changes) [37][42]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Cost collapse due to potential OPEC+ production increase, with a weakening unilateral trend. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread and 1 - 5 negative spread. The downside of the unilateral price is limited, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [6][10][11]. - PTA: Follows the decline in crude oil prices. Focus on the 11 - 1 positive spread for the month - spread and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX for processing fees [10][11]. - MEG: Valuation drops due to the decline in coal and crude oil prices. The domestic production capacity utilization rate decreases, while polyester production increases. The supply in September is still tight, and the 1 - 5 month - spread may strengthen [9][11]. Rubber - Market Performance: The price is oscillating strongly. Supported by strong raw material prices due to weather - related supply disruptions and inventory reduction. However, the upward movement is limited by the weakening preference in the commodity market [12][14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Condition: Remains in a volatile pattern. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory pressure increases. The short - term arrival volume of butadiene is high, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][18][19]. Asphalt - Market Situation: The production starts to increase significantly, and the inventory situation is mixed (increase in Longzhong data and decrease in Baichuan data). It is expected to follow the oil price in a range - bound movement [20][31]. LLDPE - Market Outlook: In a medium - term oscillating market. Although the demand from the agricultural film industry improves, the commodity sentiment weakens the futures trend. The supply pressure may ease temporarily in late September due to maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [32][33]. PP - Market Trend: Short - term oscillation, with medium - term downward pressure. The short - term demand improves, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure increases with the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity releases [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Market Analysis: Not advisable to chase short positions. The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The driving force for price increase is insufficient due to export and alumina - related issues, but there is no obvious downward driving force for the spot price either [40][42]. Pulp - Market Performance: Oscillates. The average price of imported pulp decreases slightly. The futures price rises slightly, but the spot price has limited follow - up due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [45][47][50]. Glass - Market Condition: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the downstream orders change little, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [51][52]. Methanol - Market Outlook: Short - term rebound, medium - term oscillation. The port inventory accumulates, and the price is weak. The short - term fundamental contradiction is large, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [54][57][58]. Urea - Market Trend: Short - term fluctuations, with medium - term downward pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises increases slightly. The futures price is over - valued, and the 01 contract may face inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [59][60][61]. Styrene - Market Situation: Medium - term bearish. The long - position holders' expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season are strong, but the inventory in East China ports accumulates, and the tank capacity is tight in September. The short - term is volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are weak [62][63]. Soda Ash - Market Condition: The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash plants increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average, with a weak price trend expected in the short term [64][66]. LPG, Propylene - LPG: The expected increase in OPEC+ production leads to a decline in the crude oil cost. The market is affected by factors such as CP prices and device maintenance plans [68][73]. - Propylene: The support from spot supply and demand weakens [68]. PVC - Market Outlook: Under pressure. The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali compensation" profit model. The domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak, the inventory accumulates, and the export growth may slow down [77]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Turns to an oscillating pattern and is still weak in the short term [80]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Continues to decline, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the foreign spot market narrows slightly [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Performance: Wide - range oscillation. The spot freight rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern shows that the loading rate in September decreases slightly. The 2510 contract may face loading pressure during the National Day holiday, and the 2512 contract has some negative factors. It is advisable to consider positive spread strategies for the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 contracts and to try short positions on the 2510 contract [82][93][96].