烧碱：现货价格坚挺，期价为何走弱？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report holds a view of strong current situation but weak future expectations, predicting that the off - season contracts of caustic soda are likely to operate weakly [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - As of August 29, the weekly production of caustic soda reached 813,200 tons, still at a relatively high level in the past five years but showing a decline. The average operating rate dropped from a peak of 85.1% to 82.4%. The main reasons are the arrival of the autumn regular maintenance peak and temporary shutdowns of some enterprises in Shandong due to traffic control. The current maintenance capacity is 3.13 million tons, and according to the maintenance plan, 2.79 million tons and 1.31 million tons of new maintenance devices are expected in September and October respectively, with the operating rate unlikely to return to the previous high in September. However, some chlor - alkali plants have resumed production after the traffic control in Shandong was lifted [6] - The planned new production capacity this year has decreased from over 4 million tons at the beginning of the year to 2.25 million tons, with some projects postponed to next year due to environmental approval and production profit issues. Currently, Shandong Hydrogen Energy New Energy, Shandong Qingdao Bay, Tianjin Bohua Chemical, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical have all been put into production, and there are still 1.15 million tons of production capacity to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. The achievement rate of production capacity needs to be continuously tracked. Additionally, about 19.25 million tons of caustic soda production capacity is over 20 years old, accounting for 39% of the total capacity. Since the industry is still profitable overall, the impact of the "anti - involution" policy is expected to be limited, and policy changes need to be continuously observed [6] Demand Side - In terms of alumina demand, as of August 29, the latest weekly output of alumina reached 1.847 million tons, at a high level this year. Alumina plants are still profitable, and with the increase in new production in the fourth quarter, the output is expected to rise steadily. Although the alkali - preparation demand before production is lower than that in the first half of the year, the incremental daily alkali consumption demand will still strongly support the caustic soda consumption this year [14] - In terms of non - aluminum demand, the cumulative output of viscose staple fiber in the first seven months of this year was 2.89 million tons, a slight increase of 1.7% compared with the same period last year. The recent seasonal peak season has driven an increase in alkali - preparation demand. The overall starting rate of the printing and dyeing industry is lower than last year, but it has also entered the seasonal peak season recently, with the starting rate rising compared to the previous period. The elasticity and sustainability of peak - season demand need to be continuously observed [14] Market Outlook - The demand side of caustic soda is currently in the early stage of the seasonal peak season. The production has declined due to autumn maintenance, and the inventory has decreased temporarily. The spot price is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, as the peak - season demand fades and the autumn - maintenance production capacity returns, coupled with the fact that the caustic soda inventory this year is still at a high level in recent years, the supply of caustic soda is expected to return to an oversupply situation after October. Therefore, if the seasonal peak season and the overall optimistic sentiment in the commodity market drive the off - season 01 contract to rise significantly to an overvalued level, short positions can be established at high prices after the market fluctuations stabilize or after the warehouse receipts start to be registered. The reference operating range for SH2601 is 2,200 - 2,800 yuan per ton. The changes in peak - season inventory, the registration volume of warehouse receipts, and the progress of alumina production capacity commissioning need to be continuously tracked [3][19]