LLDPE：中期震荡行情

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to experience a mid - term oscillating trend. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry; however, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. Although there is a slight increase in domestic supply and a small inventory build - up recently, the overall inventory pressure is not high, so the PE market may continue to oscillate within a range [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 was 7225, with a daily decline of - 0.51%. The trading volume was 235,618, and the open interest increased by 12,101 [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 01 contract was - 115 (compared to - 97 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 5 (compared to 7 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Prices: In the North China region, the spot price was 7110 yuan/ton (down from 7150 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7170 yuan/ton (down from 7220 yuan/ton); and in the South China region, it was 7350 yuan/ton (down from 7380 yuan/ton) [1]. Spot News - The domestic PE market prices oscillated within a range this week. Crude oil prices first rose and then fell, providing limited cost support. Some plants such as Shanghai Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, and Ningxia Baofeng Phase III were under maintenance, but new production capacities from Jilin Petrochemical Phase II and Yulong Petrochemical continued to be released, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. The operating rate of the downstream agricultural film industry continued to rise, but new orders for some factories were lower than expected. The "Golden September" peak - demand season showed mediocre performance. Market sentiment was cautious, with holders offering small discounts to sell, and terminal inquiries were low, resulting in limited trading volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is improving, mainly due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports PE prices. However, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a small inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not high [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].