Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on September 5, 2025, covering various agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil lacks continuous driving force and is waiting for a pullback; soybean oil is in a volatile adjustment; soybean meal may rebound following US soybeans, but beware of frost risks; soybean No.1 is in a rebound and volatile state; corn is in a volatile operation; sugar has a year - on - year decline in Brazilian exports; cotton requires attention to the situation of new crop listings; eggs have strong near - end gaming sentiment; live pigs have weak spot prices but strong far - end expectations; peanuts require attention to the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,368 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.24% increase and 9,402 yuan/ton at night with a 0.36% increase. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,410 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.52% decrease and 8,356 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.64% decrease. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 9,320 yuan/ton, and the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton [5] - News: MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a total estimated production of 1.85 million tons in August [6] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.03% increase and 3,971 yuan/ton at night with a 0.13% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,048 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.29% decrease and 3,050 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.42% decrease. The daily trading volume of soybean meal was 6.7 million tons, and the inventory was 101.49 million tons [10] - News: As of September 2, about 16% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought. StoneX lowered its forecast for US soybean yield in 2025 to 53.2 bushels per acre, with an expected production of 4.257 billion bushels. On September 4, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher due to active technical buying [7][8][12] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of +1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - Fundamentals: C2511 closed at 2,210 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.59% increase and 2,214 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase. C2601 closed at 2,194 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.50% increase and 2,197 yuan/ton at night with a 0.14% increase. The trading volume of the corn market increased, and the open interest decreased [14] - News: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and the prices in Northeast China slightly decreased, while the prices in North China decreased steadily [15] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 15.7 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,533 yuan/ton [17] - News: India's monsoon precipitation was 8.8% higher than the long - period average. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July and August. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons [17] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20] Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601 closed at 14,010 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.14% increase and 13,960 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.36% decrease. The spot price of cotton in North Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked variety increased by 20 yuan/ton to 15,267 yuan/ton [22] - News: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the cotton yarn market was generally trading. ICE cotton futures were in a narrow - range fluctuation [23] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2510 closed at 3,021 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and Egg 2601 closed at 3,405 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.18% decrease. The spot prices in some regions increased [26] - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [26] Live Pigs - Fundamentals: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 14,080 yuan/ton, 13,850 yuan/ton, and 15,640 yuan/ton respectively, with Guangdong's price decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [28] - Market Logic: There is still supply pressure in September and October. Consider 11 - 1 inverse spread intervention. Pay attention to the downward - driving force of the central price of March and May contracts. The July contract may have further policy regulation expectations. The short - term support and pressure levels of LH2601 are 13,500 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [30] - Trend Intensity: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of PK510 and PK511 decreased. The trading volume and open interest of the peanut market changed [32] - News: In most peanut - producing areas, the supply was affected by rainfall, and the prices were generally stable. New peanuts are expected to be listed around late September [33] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [34]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250905
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-05 01:49