白糖：巴西出口同比下降

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in Brazil's sugar exports has raised concerns about global consumption, and there are supply shortages in both the global and domestic sugar markets [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 15.7 cents per pound, down 0.35 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5,920 yuan per ton, down 10; the futures main contract price is 5,533 yuan per ton, down 29. The 91 spread is 31 yuan per ton, up 3; the 15 spread is 19 yuan per ton, down 11; the mainstream spot basis is 387 yuan per ton, up 19 [1] Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation as of September 4 was 8.8% higher than the long - period average (LPA). Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, with August exports at 3.74 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and July exports at 3.59 million tons, also a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that in the 24/25 sugar season, China's sugar production will be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May 24/25, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of July 24/25, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX at 52.06%, up 2.93 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from 24/25. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4]