卓创资讯期货研究报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing logic of PX, PTA, and PR is still cost - driven. With the weakening cost support due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the downstream peak season not yet showing signs of starting, the market is expected to repair the previous decline. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Information - Crude Oil: On September 4, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.48 per barrel, down 0.77% from the previous value; that of Brent crude oil was $66.99 per barrel, down 0.90% [1]. - Naphtha and Xylene: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $592.50 per ton, down 2.07%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $687.00 per ton, down 0.07% [1]. - PX: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $828.00 per ton on September 4, 2025, down 1.70%. The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6680 yuan per ton, down 1.91% [1]. - PTA: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4656 yuan per ton on September 4, 2025, down 1.61%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4623 yuan per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - PR: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5820 yuan per ton on September 4, 2025, down 1.22%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5790 yuan per ton, down 1.19% [1]. Spread Information - PXN Spread: On September 4, 2025, it was $235.50 per ton, down 0.77% [1]. - PX - MX Spread: It was $141.00 per ton on September 4, 2025, down 8.93% [1]. - Near - Far Month Spread and Basis: For PTA, the near - far month spread was - 82 yuan per ton on September 4, 2025, a decrease of 20 yuan; the basis was - 41 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. For PX, the basis was 57 yuan per ton, an increase of 130 yuan. For PR, the basis in the East China market was - 30 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 40 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - PX: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained at 82.59% on September 4, 2025 [1]. - PTA: The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 74.26%, that of polyester factories was 88.16% (up 0.17% from the previous value), that of bottle - chip factories was 73.27%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 64.56% (up 2.53% from the previous value) [1]. Production and Sales Information - Polyester Filament: The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 42.67% on September 4, 2025, down 8.16% from the previous value [1]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 39.84% on September 4, 2025, down 1.35% from the previous value [1]. - Polyester Chip: The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 48.49% on September 4, 2025, up 3.01% from the previous value [1]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. - Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China are postponed to restart next week, and the shutdown and maintenance plan of a 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has not been implemented [2]. Important News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share, leading to weakened supply expectations and a sharp drop in oil prices. The PX price decline has widened due to the significant drop in raw material prices and weak market sentiment [2]. - The decline in the crude oil market has weakened the cost support for PTA. With sufficient PTA supply and weak downstream production - sales, the PTA market has declined, and the basis has weakened [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively stable supply, and downstream terminal demand is for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis, with acceptable trading sentiment [2].