宝城期货煤焦早报-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that there are accumulating bearish factors, leading to a high - level correction of coking coal, but the correction space is expected to be limited [1][5]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that there are both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in an oscillatory adjustment of coke, and it may run weakly in the near term [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - Price Information: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1180.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - Core Logic: After the implementation of the production reduction expectation, the coking coal output has stabilized, there is no new positive in the "anti - involution" aspect, and Mongolian coal imports have returned to a high level, so there is insufficient driving force for the further rise of coking coal futures. Also, the continuous rise of coking coal and coke spot prices has compressed the profits of downstream steel mills, and an individual steel mill has initiated the first round of coke price reduction, showing increasing pressure on the demand side. However, considering the long - term impact of "anti - involution" on coking coal production and the possibility of a second - round fermentation, the correction space is limited. Whether coking coal can regain strength depends on new positive factors on the supply side [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - Price Information: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 2.03% [6]. - Core Logic: As the steel market weakens, the operating pressure on downstream enterprises has increased, and some steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price increase, intensifying the industrial chain game. Recently, there is no new driving force in the "anti - involution" theme of coking coal, the cost support for coke has weakened, and combined with increasing demand - side pressure, the main futures contract has oscillated downward and may run weakly in the near term. The bullish risk lies in the second - round fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy [6].