Hotata(SH:603848) Changjiang Securities·2025-09-05 02:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 677 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 86 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 82 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year declines of 5%, 40%, and 43% respectively. In Q2 2025, the revenue was 418 million yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 53 million yuan and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 50 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1%, 40%, and 42% respectively [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's revenue faced pressure due to a backdrop of consumer downgrade, with a year-on-year decline of 5% in H1 2025. Q1 2025 saw a more significant decline of 11%, while Q2 2025's decline narrowed to 1%. The demand for home and smart home products benefited from policies encouraging upgrades [11]. - Revenue breakdown by product shows that smart home products and traditional drying rack products experienced year-on-year declines of 5% and 15% respectively. The estimated sales volume of smart home products slightly increased, but the average price decreased due to industry price competition [11]. - Revenue from online channels increased by 0.4%, while offline channels saw a decline of 12%. Online channels accounted for 68% of total revenue, with Tmall's revenue share estimated to have increased [11]. Profitability Analysis - Profitability is under pressure due to intense industry price competition, with Q2 2025 gross margin decreasing by 10.8 percentage points to 45.3%. Excluding accounting adjustments, the gross margin decline was smaller but still negative, primarily due to reduced product prices [11]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses in Q2 2025 changed year-on-year, with sales expense ratio decreasing due to reduced advertising and decoration costs, while management expense ratio increased due to higher employee compensation and intermediary fees [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the smart drying market, with a market share of approximately 40%. The report anticipates a recovery in revenue growth and profitability as the consumer environment improves [11]. - The company is pursuing a multi-category development strategy, expanding into smart home products beyond smart drying racks, including smart locks, curtains, heating towel racks, lighting, gateways, switches, and sockets, which will open up long-term growth opportunities [11]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate net profits attributable to shareholders at 210 million, 250 million, and 290 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 47, 39, and 33 times [11].