首席点评：双焦翻红，金银回调

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - International News: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - Domestic News: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - Industry News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - Methanol: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - Rubber: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - Copper: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - Zinc: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - Black Metals - Iron Ore: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - Steel: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - Cotton: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].