碳酸锂数据日报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the previous resource - end disturbances, production scheduling has increased slightly. On the demand side, as new energy vehicles are in the off - season, the increase in production scheduling of cathode factories is limited. In terms of inventory, social inventory fluctuates at a high level, showing a pattern of inventory moving from upstream to downstream, but the actual consumption is not large, and downstream companies have stocked up a large amount of raw materials, weakening their subsequent purchasing power. It is expected that the supply - demand will be in a tight balance in September. Overall, although the supply - demand is in a tight balance, downstream companies have sufficient inventory and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. During this process, be vigilant about small rumors from the mining end before the 30th [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 874 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Contract Prices - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.27%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.88%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,420 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.05%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,580 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.1%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,560 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.16% [1]. Positive Electrode Material Prices - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 33,995 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 118,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 123,625 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,580 yuan/ton, down 2,440 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 140,092 tons, down 1,044 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 39,475 tons, down 3,861 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 55,207 tons, up 2,407 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 45,410 tons, up 410 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 830 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,475 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1,567 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly given, and the profit is - 6,991 yuan/ton [2].