贵金属数据日报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the weakening of safe - haven sentiment, the wave of U.S. economic data, and the reduction of automobile tariffs will limit the rise of precious metal prices. After a recent sharp rise, precious metals are overbought, and profit - taking may lead to price adjustments. However, weak U.S. employment data strengthens the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, so precious metal prices are still supported. Precious metals are expected to slow down and enter a high - level oscillation phase, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On September 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3536.55/ounce, London silver spot at $40.85/ounce, COMEX gold at $3596.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $41.45/ounce. Compared with September 3, the price of London gold spot and London silver spot rose 0.1%, COMEX gold fell 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed certain fluctuations [5]. - Price Spreads/Ratios: On September 4, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 4.08 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 4 yuan/kg, and there were also corresponding changes in other spreads and ratios compared with September 3 [5]. Position Data - COMEX Gold and Silver Positions: As of August 26, 2025 (weekly data), COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,767 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61,456 contracts, and the net long position was 214,311 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,761 contracts, and the net long position was 46,466 contracts [5]. - ETF Positions: On September 3, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 984.26 tons, a decrease of 0.64% compared with September 2. The silver ETF - SLV position was 15,281.39775 tons, a decrease of 0.55% [5]. Inventory Data - SHFE and COMEX Inventories: On September 4, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 43,254 kg, an increase of 7.46% compared with September 3. SHFE silver inventory was 1,259,949 kg, an increase of 2.68%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 38,957,798 troy ounces on September 3 compared with September 2, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.42% to 516,067,724 troy ounces [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: On September 4, 2025, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11, with a - 0.08% change compared with September 3. The U.S. dollar index was 98.15, a - 0.17% change compared with September 2. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.61%, a - 1.37% change, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.22%, a - 1.40% change [5]. - Stock Market and Crude Oil: The VIX index was 16.35, a - 4.78% change. The S&P 500 index was 6448.26, a 0.51% change. NYMEX crude oil was at $63.77, a - 2.82% change [5]. Market News and Analysis - Economic News: The Fed released the Beige Book, showing that consumer spending was flat or declining. Japan and the U.S. were in the final stage of negotiating to reduce Japanese automobile import tariffs, with the tariff rate expected to drop from 27.5% to 15% at the end of the month. U.S. employment data in August was weak, and the trade deficit in July was - $8.3 billion [5]. - Market Performance: On September 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.32% to 812.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.14% to 9773 yuan/kg [5].