黑色金属数据日报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel market shows weak supply and demand. After the military parade, production will resume, but demand remains weak, suppressing prices. Steel futures valuation has been restored to a neutral range, and downstream buyers can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, with prices under pressure. Although the "anti - involution" policy provides long - term support, current supply is increasing, and demand may be weak, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are weak. Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is also under pressure. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts for coke in September. However, due to factors such as the upcoming National Day and winter storage, and the "anti - involution" policy, the downward space may be limited [4]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock range. Although iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, the pre - National Day restocking demand provides some support. The 01 contract still has effective support at the bottom [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 4, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); HC2605 closed at 3325 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.27%); J2605 closed at 1677.5 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (- 1.06%); JM2605 closed at 1149.5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 1.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); HC2601 closed at 3313 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.24%); J2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.37%); JM2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.97%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on September 4 were: RB2601 - 2605 was - 50 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 was - 12 yuan/ton, J2601 - 2605 was - 96 yuan/ton, JM2601 - 2605 was - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit on September 4: the coil - to - rebar spread was 196 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar futures profit was - 37.48 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 125.82 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On September 4, the spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 105.1 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3370 yuan/ton, 3420 yuan/ton, and 3360 yuan/ton respectively; the billet - to - product spread was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special Powder at Qingdao Port, etc. were 670 yuan/ton, 715 yuan/ton, etc.; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1180 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - On September 4, the basis of HC, RB, J, and JM main contracts were 57 yuan/ton, 93 yuan/ton, 98.66 yuan/ton, and 115.5 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate times [2][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short on rallies [6]. - For coking coal and coke, gradually take profit on previous short positions and consider batch - wise layout of medium - term long positions [6].