华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with its price center of gravity shifting downwards and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Steel Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the market is volatile, and investors are focusing on the key employment report on Friday. Previous data shows a softening labor market, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. The increase in initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [1]. - On the supply side, the replacement capacity continues to be released, and the weekly output increased slightly to 847,300 tons. On the cost side, the full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 16,618 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit narrowed to around 3,991 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [2]. - On the demand side, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. The "Golden September" effect is emerging, and each sector is recovering well. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly by 0.2% to 56.6%, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 1.2 percentage points to 68.6%, and the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased by 1 percentage point to 64.8% [2]. - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2].