申银万国期货早间策略-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets [2]. - The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. - Since July, the stock index has been rising continuously with a large increase. There are signs of short - term adjustment, but the probability of the medium - and long - term market continuation is high [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (including current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) decreased compared to the day before. The price declines were - 83.40, - 84.80, - 81.20, and - 79.40 respectively, with corresponding decline rates of - 1.88%, - 1.92%, - 1.84%, and - 1.81%. The trading volumes were 133914.00, 8218.00, 57395.00, and 15256.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 6959.00, 915.00, 3261.00, and 1301.00 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased. The price declines were - 44.40, - 43.80, - 44.80, and - 45.00 respectively, with decline rates of - 1.51%, - 1.49%, - 1.52%, and - 1.53%. The trading volumes were 65727.00, 5056.00, 24358.00, and 6289.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 4043.00, 826.00, 2463.00, and 1652.00 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts declined. The price declines were - 165.00, - 164.60, - 167.00, and - 169.20 respectively, with decline rates of - 2.42%, - 2.44%, - 2.51%, and - 2.60%. The trading volumes were 113276.00, 8055.00, 55486.00, and 17262.00 respectively, and the open interests increased by 9697.00, 1664.00, 2409.00, and 2562.00 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased. The price declines were - 158.40, - 151.60, - 154.20, and - 147.40 respectively, with decline rates of - 2.21%, - 2.14%, - 2.22%, and - 2.17%. The trading volumes were 239398.00, 15491.00, 98940.00, and 29410.00 respectively. The open interest of the current - month contract decreased by 1649.00, while those of the next - month, next - quarter, and far - quarter contracts increased by 1824.00, 3861.00, and 1460.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased compared to the day before, with decline rates of - 2.12%, - 1.71%, - 2.48%, and - 2.30% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indices also changed [1]. - Industry Performance: Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed various trends. The energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries had different decline or increase rates, with the telecommunications industry having a significant decline rate of - 9.13% and the public utilities industry having a slight increase rate of 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - For the CSI 300, the basis differences between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index changed compared to the day before [1]. - For the SSE 50, the basis differences between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index also changed [1]. - For the CSI 500, the basis differences between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index changed [1]. - For the CSI 1000, the basis differences between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index changed [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index decreased compared to the day before, with decline rates of - 1.25%, - 2.83%, - 2.37%, and - 4.25% respectively [1]. - Overseas indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had different performance, with the Hang Seng Index declining by - 1.12% and the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index increasing by 1.53%, 0.83%, and 0.74% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti - circumvention investigation ruling, deciding to implement anti - circumvention measures on US exporters from September 4 [2]. - President Xi Jinping held talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, emphasizing China's support for North Korea's development path and its objective and fair stance on the Korean Peninsula issue [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing sports consumption potential and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, aiming to cultivate world - influential sports enterprises and events and achieve a total industry scale of over 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [2]. - Two departments issued an action plan for stabilizing the growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry, with the expected average growth rate of the added value of scale - above computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries at about 7% from 2025 - 2026, and the average annual revenue growth rate of the electronic information manufacturing industry exceeding 5% including related fields [2]. - Shanghai launched the "Keyan" Return Plan (pilot), providing 50,000 yuan in subsidies to eligible female scientific and technological talents after childbirth [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - From January to July, China's renewable energy added 283 million kilowatts of installed capacity, with a total installed capacity of 2.171 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly 60% of the country's total installed capacity. Efforts will be made to promote the development of new models and formats of renewable energy [2]. - In September, the housing supply in 28 cities increased by 10% month - on - month due to the traditional marketing peak season. The supply in first - tier cities rebounded significantly, while that in second - tier cities remained flat month - on - month but halved year - on - year with intensified internal differentiation. The supply in third - and fourth - tier cities increased both month - on - month and year - on - year due to the influence of individual cities such as Wuxi [2]. - The Securities Association of China launched the 2025 single - business quality evaluation work for securities companies' investment banking, bond business, and major asset restructuring financial advisory business, requiring relevant evaluation materials to be submitted by September 15 [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indices rose, while the stock index continued to correct in the previous trading day, with the communication sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan. On September 2, the margin trading balance increased by 1.548 billion yuan to 2.273914 trillion yuan [2].