20250905申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as the supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and certain downstream demand trends [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Copper - Market Situation: Night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. Downstream, the power industry shows positive growth, but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance output growth is slowing; and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Price Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market Situation: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous growth in smelting output. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 79,800 | 135 | 9,898 | - 67.16 | 158,575 | - 200 | | Aluminum | 20,620 | - 10 | 2,590 | 3.51 | 479,600 | 0 | | Zinc | 22,100 | - 65 | 2,838 | 16.21 | 55,225 | - 375 | | Nickel | 120,650 | - 1,030 | 15,236 | - 179.22 | 214,230 | 3,996 | | Lead | 16,805 | - 125 | 1,986 | - 44.77 | 254,550 | - 3,475 | | Tin | 271,820 | 1,850 | 34,425 | 97.50 | 2,195 | 20 | [2]