Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on September 5, 2025, including whether they will be in a state of shock consolidation, weak shock, strong shock, or wide - range shock, and also gives the corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Futures Index: On September 5, 2025, it is expected to move in a shock - consolidation pattern. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4383 and 4441 points, and support levels at 4306 and 4279 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2512 contract is likely to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 108.30 and 108.43 yuan, and support levels at 108.17 and 108.10 yuan [3]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2512 contract is expected to show a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 117.9 and 118.2 yuan, and support levels at 117.2 and 116.8 yuan [3]. - Gold Futures: The AU2510 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 818.8 and 823.2 yuan/gram, and support levels at 811.2 and 806.2 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver Futures: The AG2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 9685 and 9600 yuan/kilogram, and resistance levels at 9851 and 9965 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2510 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 79500 and 79400 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 80000 and 80100 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2510 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend, with resistance levels at 20730 and 20770 yuan/ton, and support levels at 20590 and 20500 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2601 contract is likely to show a weak - shock trend and will test the support levels at 2950 and 2919 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2989 and 3008 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The ZN2510 contract is expected to have a weak - shock trend, with support levels at 22000 and 21960 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 22160 and 22230 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon Futures: The PS2511 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 53000 and 53700 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2511 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 74800 and 75800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 71300 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3101 and 3080 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3135 and 3150 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The HC2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with support levels at 3292 and 3275 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3335 and 3355 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with resistance levels at 795 and 800 yuan/ton, and support levels at 777 and 771 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 1120 and 1138 yuan/ton, with support levels at 1090 and 1075 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1125 and 1106 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1152 and 1174 yuan/ton [5]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA601 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 1255 and 1240 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1290 and 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2510 contract is likely to have a wide - range shock trend, with support levels at 478 and 473 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 488 and 490 yuan/barrel [5]. - Methanol Futures: The MA601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 2409 and 2423 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2378 and 2372 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The M2601 contract is likely to move in a shock - consolidation pattern, with resistance levels at 3066 and 3081 yuan/ton, and support levels at 3039 and 3027 yuan/ton [5]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2601 contract is expected to have a strong - shock trend and will attack the resistance levels at 16170 and 16230 yuan/ton, with support levels at 15880 and 15750 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - International events include the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong - un, the US - Japan trade agreement implementation, and the US government's actions against a Norwegian sovereign wealth fund [7][8][9]. - Domestic policies involve the release of a sports industry development plan, a plan to stabilize the electronic information manufacturing industry, and a support plan for female scientific and technological talents [7][8]. - Central bank operations: The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 5, 2025 [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Precious Metals: On September 4, 2025, international precious - metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce [10]. - Crude Oil: On September 4, 2025, due to OPEC's expected production increase, US crude oil futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.07% to $66.88 per barrel [10]. - Base Metals: On September 4, 2025, London base metals closed lower across the board. For example, LME aluminum futures fell 1.11% to $2590.00 per ton, and LME copper futures fell 0.84% to $9891.50 per ton [11]. - Exchange Rates: On September 4, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402, up 66 basis points, and the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28 [11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Futures Index: On September 4, 2025, major futures index contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [11][12][13]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 4, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year T2512 contract and the thirty - year TL2512 contract both showed a rebound trend [32][35]. - Gold Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, but the medium - and short - term upward space has further opened up [39]. - Silver Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AG2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the long - term and short - term upward trends are obvious [46]. - Copper Futures: On September 4, 2025, the CU2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term upward momentum weakened [51]. - Aluminum Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AL2510 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [55]. - Alumina Futures: On September 4, 2025, the AO2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [58]. - Zinc Futures: On September 4, 2025, the ZN2510 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [63]. ， the PS2511 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was weak [67]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On September 4, 2025, the LC2511 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and stabilized [69]. - Rebar Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term stopped falling and rebounded slightly [75]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the HC2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [78]. - Iron Ore Futures: On September 4, 2025, the I2601 contract showed a strong - shock upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound strongly [82]. - Coking Coal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the JM2601 contract showed a shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased [87]. - Glass Futures: On September 4, 2025, the FG601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [92]. - Soda Ash Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SA601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, but the rebound was obviously weak [97]. - Crude Oil Futures: On September 4, 2025, the SC2510 contract showed a weak - shock downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased significantly [101]. - Methanol Futures: On September 4, 2025, the MA601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term downward pressure increased slightly [105]. - Soybean Meal Futures: On September 4, 2025, the M2601 contract showed a slight shock - downward trend, and the short - term rebound momentum weakened [108]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On September 4, 2025, the RU2601 contract showed a slight shock - upward trend, and the short - term continued to rebound slightly [110].
股指期货将震荡整理，白银、铜期货将偏弱震荡，黄金、螺纹钢期货将震荡整理，焦煤期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-05 03:16