新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-5）-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Weakly [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating strongly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On - hold [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Views - The steel industry's steady - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 doesn't limit steel production, focusing on industrial added - value. The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate at high levels. The coal - coke market is weakening, and the rolled steel and rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern [2]. - The overall market is weakening, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices. Treasury bonds are trending weakly, and long positions should be held lightly. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly due to various factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate expectations [4]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Logs are expected to run weakly. Oils and fats are likely to oscillate, and meal products are expected to oscillate weakly. Live pigs are expected to see a slight price increase [6][7]. - Natural rubber is expected to remain strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and inventory decline. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester industry have different trends based on factors like supply - demand and cost [9]. Summary by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy doesn't limit production. The price is relatively strong, with limited fundamental contradictions. The expected reduction in daily hot - metal production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The fundamentals are weakening, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The supply remains high, and the total demand is difficult to show counter - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to run weakly [2]. - Glass: The market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern hasn't improved significantly. The key lies in the cold - repair path, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Industry - Stock indices: Most stock indices are in an oscillating state, with the CSI 1000 Index trending downward. The market is weakening, and risk control is recommended [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The yields are fluctuating, and the market is trending weakly. Long positions should be held lightly [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate expectations [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The cost supports the price, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate and rise, but the increase may be limited [6]. - Logs: The supply pressure is small, the peak season expectation is uncertain, and the delivery willingness is weak. It is expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - Oils and fats: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand is growing. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales conditions [6]. - Meal products: The market sentiment has worsened, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight is decreasing, the slaughter rate is rising, and the price is expected to rise slightly [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Natural rubber: The supply is tight, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to remain strong in the short - term [9]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: Their trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment, with different performance and expectations [9].