Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - Domestic and Overseas Economy: Domestically, pro - service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are being promoted, but their effects need further observation. Industrial profit repair takes time. Overseas, the US economy shows "soft landing" features, and employment data strengthens the market's Fed rate - cut expectation. Attention should be paid to non - farm employment and unemployment data. Also, the high prices of long - term bonds in the UK, Germany, and France may lead to speculation about a global credit "crisis" [2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The core of the current RMB - US dollar exchange rate is the rhythm control. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. After a strong employment report followed by a weak QCEW correction notice, market dovish sentiment may increase. The non - farm data is crucial. The RMB - US dollar spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair to a reasonable equilibrium, with attention on market sentiment around 7.13 [4]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to adjust in the short term, with limited downside space [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock. It is not advisable to chase high, and previous long positions should stop profit [7]. - Container Shipping: The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and mainstream shipping companies' Golden Week blank - sailing plans. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [12]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips. Alumina is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell call options. Cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [14]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options or double - selling can be considered [16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are expected to be in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term. Trading strategies such as selling the outer market and buying the inner market or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are expected to be in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [21]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to be slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. It is recommended to observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state, and caution is needed in operation [26][27]. - Commodities - Black Metals: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure. However, there are expectations for peak - season demand, and the market may be in a short - term shock - adjustment state. Attention should be paid to actual peak - season demand and macro policies [29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are currently strong but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the lifting of the military - parade production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. There may be room for the coke price to fall in the short term. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure, but short - term over - supply is not serious. Attention should be paid to pre - National - Day replenishment and peak - season demand verification [33]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state. It is recommended to go long on the spread between the two when the spread is - 400 for the 01 contract [34][36]. - Commodities - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which will affect oil prices next week. Geopolitical risks are short - term interference factors. The oil market may face downward risks after the market sentiment subsides [38]. - LPG: LPG is expected to maintain a volatile state, affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand [40]. - PTA - PX: The PX - TA market is mainly affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end. It is recommended to shrink the PTA01 processing fee when it is above 350 [43]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to build long positions on dips or sell the 4,250 put option for the 10 - contract [47]. - Methanol: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [48]. - PP: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high growth [51]. - PE: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the driving force from demand is not strong. It is expected to be in a volatile state [53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak. Pure benzene is expected to be weak and volatile, and for styrene, it is not recommended to short - sell unilaterally. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider buying at a low price [55][56]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations, and the downward driving force remains [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news. Its valuation is low, and it is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost. In the medium - to - long - term, demand may improve with the arrival of the construction season, but there are still rainfall disturbances [61]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and hold positive spreads for RU9 - 1 [65]. - Urea: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,650 - 1,850. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with stable demand and high upstream and mid - stream inventories [68]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: US ISM service PMI expands at the fastest pace in half a year, but employment is weak, and prices remain high. The trade deficit widens, and the Fed rate - cut expectation is strengthened [1]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB - US dollar exchange rate rises. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. Attention should be paid to non - farm data [3][4]. - Stock Index: The stock index falls with increased volume, and it is expected to adjust in the short term with limited downside space [4][5]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock [7]. Container Shipping - The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [8][10]. Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price falls slightly but may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [11][12]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is weak and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [13][14]. - Lead: Lead prices fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [15][16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term [18][19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [19][21]. - Tin: Tin prices are slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. Observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [23][24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state [25][27]. Commodities - Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel mills resume production after the military parade. The market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure but also supported by peak - season demand expectations [28][29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are strong, but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [30][31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the lifting of production restrictions, the coke supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure [31][33]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state [34]. Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ production increase expectations and US crude oil inventory accumulation lead to a decline in oil prices. The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase affects future prices [37][38]. - LPG: LPG is affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand, and is expected to maintain a volatile state [39][40]. - PTA - PX: The PX - TA market is affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end [41][43]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol oscillates between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment [44][47]. - Methanol: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments [48]. - PP: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain, depending on downstream demand growth [50][51]. - PE: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand driving force is not strong [52][53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak [54][56]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news, with low valuation [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost, and demand may improve in the medium - to - long - term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity [62][65]. - Urea: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [68].
金融期货早评-20250905
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-05 03:33