长江期货市场交易指引-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - finance: Index futures are expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term and are bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests buying on dips [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests moderately holding long positions at low levels; Aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin suggests range trading; Gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][11][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to run in a volatile pattern; Rubber is expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Polyolefins are expected to run in a wide - range volatile pattern; Soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [1][19][21][24][26][28][30][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to run in a volatile pattern; PTA is expected to run in a volatile pattern within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Jujubes are expected to run with a moderately weak bias [1][33][34][35][36] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest shorting on rallies; Eggs suggest shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to run in a range - bound pattern; Soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; Oils and fats are expected to have high - level adjustments [1][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, shorting on rallies, range trading, and arbitrage [1][5][7][9][10][11][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][36][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Index futures: The A - share market was volatile on Thursday. Short - term fluctuations are due to technical consolidation needs, but the adjustment is a healthy turnover rather than a trend reversal. It is bullish in the long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has relatively low risks in the short - term. Although the bond yield has been rising recently, the stage top has appeared, and it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Black building materials - Coking coal: The pit - mouth price has increased recently. It is recommended to focus on the range of [1030 - 1230] for trading [7] - Rebar: The futures price has been rising recently. The supply - demand relationship has weakened in reality, but the price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the core range of [3000 - 3300] for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has improved recently. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract paying attention to the support level of 1110 - 1120 [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - Copper: The price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level volatile pattern. It is expected to have an upward trend in the future due to the approaching peak season. It is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [10][11] - Aluminum: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or conduct a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - Nickel: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - Tin: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 26 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [16] - Silver and gold: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased, and the prices of precious metals have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with the SHFE silver 10 contract referring to the range of 9000 - 9800 and the SHFE gold 10 contract referring to the range of 775 - 820 [17] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 4700 - 5000 [19][20] - Caustic soda: Affected by the warehouse receipt pressure and the short - term peak of the spot price, the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. The 01 contract is expected to run within the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][23] - Styrene: The cost and profit are under pressure, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [24][25] - Rubber: The raw material price is high, and the inventory is in a destocking cycle. It is expected to run with a moderately strong bias, paying attention to the support level of 15600 [26][27] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the support level of 1680 - 1720 [28] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to increase. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern [30] - Polyolefins: The supply and demand are both improving, but the demand improvement is relatively limited. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, with the L2601 contract paying attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2601 contract paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand from photovoltaic glass has improved. It is recommended to adopt a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [32] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply - demand situation has improved, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. The price is expected to be under downward pressure in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33][34] - PTA: The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern with a moderately strong bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 4900 [34][35] - Apples: The prices of early - maturing apples are higher than last year, and the market is expected to run with a moderately strong bias [35][36] - Jujubes: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to run with a moderately weak bias [36] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - Live pigs: The supply is increasing, and the demand is growing slowly. The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 11 contract's pressure level at 13700 - 14000 and the 01 contract's pressure level at 14000 - 14300. It is also recommended to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [37][38][39] - Eggs: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may rebound slightly in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - Corn: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to run in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategy [42] - Soybean meal: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract [43][45] - Oils and fats: The short - term prices are under pressure, but the downward adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and then go long, with the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil having support levels at 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively [46][48][49][52]