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对二甲苯：成本坍塌，单边趋势转弱，PTA：月差正套，MEG：单边趋势偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-05 03:34

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Go long on dips before mid - September [6][7] - PTA: Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for the month spread, and long PTA short PX for the processing fee [7] - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread may be strong, and the unilateral price has limited downside [7] 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected increase in OPEC+ production, crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days, weakening PX valuation, but the downside of PX's unilateral price is limited. PTA follows the decline of crude oil prices. MEG's valuation drops as coal and crude oil prices fall, but its supply - demand remains tight in September [6][7] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 4th, Asian paraxylene prices dropped significantly due to falling oil prices and the pressure of PTA over - capacity. Crude oil futures continued to decline as investors anticipated a possible increase in OPEC+ production. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on September 7th to determine October's production level [3][4] Fundamental Data - PX: On September 4th, Platts' assessment of Asian paraxylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea was 828 and 807 dollars/ton respectively, down 15 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars/ton [2][3] - PTA: As of Thursday, PTA load was 72.8%. The PTA processing fee was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan/ton [2][5] - MEG: As of September 4th, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.12% (down 1.01% from the previous period). The operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.68% (down 3.06% from the previous period) [5] - Polyester: As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91%. The overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75% [5] Sales Volume - On September 4th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 3 - 40%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 39% [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]