环球市场动态：预期美国按揭贷款利率下行幅度不大

Market Overview - US ADP employment data for August showed a significant slowdown in private sector job growth, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut this month[5] - US stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising 350 points (0.77%) to close at 45,621.3, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.83% to 6,502.1, marking a new high[8] - European markets mostly closed higher, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.61%, driven by stabilizing bond markets and easing investor sentiment[8] Commodity and Forex Insights - EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 2.42 million barrels, leading to a decline in international oil prices[24] - The dollar index rose by 0.21% to 98.35, while gold prices fell by 0.80% to $3,577 per ounce after a six-day rally[24] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%, reflecting increased bets on a Fed rate cut[28] Real Estate and Mortgage Rates - The US housing market remains subdued, with mortgage rates above 6%, limiting affordability for buyers[5] - The spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields is expected to gradually decrease to slightly above 2% as the Fed cuts rates[5] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising 1.5% to 42,580.3, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.1%[18] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.12%, closing just above the 25,000 mark, with significant declines in technology and resource stocks[10] Sector Highlights - In the US, 10 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with Amazon shares up 4.29% following a partnership announcement, while Salesforce shares fell 4.85% due to disappointing revenue guidance[8] - In China, the A-share market saw a collective decline, with the ChiNext index down 4.25% and the STAR 50 index down 6.08%[15]