Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets: Since August, the US has raised tariffs, with its economy remaining resilient, inflation rising, and employment slowing unexpectedly. The Fed has hinted at rate cuts, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields and a slight depreciation of the US dollar. The eurozone economy is showing signs of improvement, with inflation remaining moderate, and the euro is expected to appreciate slightly against the US dollar. Japan's economy presents a mixed picture, with tariffs suppressing exports and core inflation cooling, and the yen is expected to fluctuate slightly against the US dollar. The narrowing of the Sino-US yield spread, the release of domestic entities' foreign exchange settlement demand, and the inflow of foreign capital into the domestic stock market have led to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and it is expected to continue to appreciate slightly in the short term [3]. - Macroeconomic fundamentals: In July, both demand and production converged, with the demand side experiencing a larger decline, partly due to falling prices. The production side showed a slight decline, indicating the implementation of anti-involution policies, but overall, it remained resilient. Export data slightly exceeded expectations, but there is downward pressure in the future. The bond market has largely anticipated the weakness in aggregate demand but is sensitive to the upward shift in the price center. As the inflation center rises, the bottom of bond yields will gradually increase [3]. - Monetary policy and liquidity: Since August, the central bank has made net injections, and the short-term capital price center has shifted downward. Looking ahead, the stock market may experience short-term fluctuations, and there are concerns about market overheating and capital idling. The supply of government bonds will remain high, and there will be pressure on the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, leading to fluctuations in the end-of-quarter capital market. Overall, although there are more disturbances in the capital market, the downward trend in financing costs continues, and liquidity does not have a basis for a trend tightening [4]. - Interest rate bond strategy: Since August, bond yields have first declined and then risen due to fluctuations in industrial product prices under anti-involution policies. Looking ahead, aggregate demand remains weak, but the bond market's reaction to fundamentals is gradually dulling. There are increasing interference factors in the bond market, including the impact of anti-involution policies on prices, the stock market's rise, and the increase in bond interest income tax. However, given the weak demand, the possibility of a significant increase in interest rates is low, and the interest rate center is expected to rise, with the oscillation range also shifting upward. Trading desks can seize repair opportunities when interest rates rise, while allocation desks can intervene when interest rates reach the upper limit of the range, and medium- and long-term bonds are more valuable for allocation [4]. - Credit bond strategy: In August, the "stock-bond seesaw" effect continued to suppress the bond market, and the redemption pressure of funds intensified the volatility of long-term interest rates. As the bond market adjusts, the cost-effectiveness of medium- and high-grade credit bonds with a maturity of three years has increased, but the credit spread is still relatively low. It is recommended to focus on defensive strategies, appropriately reduce duration, and pay attention to coupon opportunities for bonds with a maturity of less than three years. The central bank has taken measures to maintain a balanced and loose liquidity environment, and the pressure on further significant price increases for certificates of deposit may be controllable [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Overseas Markets - US economic situation: Since August, the US manufacturing and service sectors have expanded significantly. However, the employment market has slowed unexpectedly, and core inflation has continued to rise. The Fed is likely to implement a preventive 25-basis-point rate cut in September. The Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet, leading to a marginal convergence of US dollar liquidity. The primary demand for US Treasury bonds has weakened again, and long-term Treasury bond yields face upward pressure. The US dollar is expected to depreciate slightly in the short term [8][10][16]. - Eurozone economic situation: The eurozone economy is showing signs of improvement, with inflation remaining moderate. The euro has appreciated against the US dollar and is expected to continue to appreciate slightly in the short term [31][34]. - Japanese economic situation: Japan's economy presents a mixed picture, with external challenges increasing and core inflation cooling. The yen has appreciated against the US dollar and is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [39][44]. - RMB exchange rate situation: Since July, the inversion of the Sino-US Treasury yield spread has gradually decreased, and domestic entities' foreign exchange settlement demand has continued to be released. The RMB has appreciated slightly against the US dollar and is expected to continue to appreciate slightly in the short term [49][55]. - Gold market situation: In August, the price of gold fluctuated upward within a range. Non-commercial net long positions decreased slightly, while gold ETFs continued to flow in. Emerging central banks continued to purchase gold, supporting the medium- and long-term price of gold. It is expected that the price of gold will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [58][65]. Part II: Domestic Macroeconomy - Investment situation: From January to July, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline, with the growth rates of real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment all falling. Real estate investment is still in the process of bottoming out, and the growth rate of real estate sales has slightly rebounded, while the land transaction premium rate has decreased. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the price increase is not well supported [71][75][80]. - Consumption situation: In July, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline, mainly due to the diminishing effect of subsidies and the decline in automobile consumption [83]. - Export situation: From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports was 6.1%, and the growth rate in July was 7.2%, showing strong resilience. However, due to factors such as the increase in tariffs and the overdraft effect of pre-exporting, the export growth rate is expected to decline in the future [86]. - Production situation: From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.3%, showing a slight slowdown. The operating rates of the steel and coal industries have generally increased [90][93]. - Employment situation: In July, the urban surveyed unemployment rate increased seasonally, and the employment demand of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased rapidly [96]. - Inflation situation: In July, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI was 0%, and the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI was 0.8%, showing an upward trend. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI stopped falling, and it is expected that the decline will gradually narrow in the future [99][102]. - VAT new policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. This policy will lead to an increase in the spread between new and old bonds, benefit interbank certificates of deposit and credit bonds, and have an impact on financial institutions [103][104][106]. Part III: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - Liquidity review: In August, the central bank made net injections, and the short-term capital price center shifted downward, while the long-term capital price center changed little. The trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased in the middle and late August. The growth rate of M1 and M2 exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of social financing increased [116][121][130]. - Liquidity outlook: In September, the supply of government bonds is expected to remain high, and the maturity pressure of interbank certificates of deposit is large, leading to increased disturbances in the end-of-quarter capital market. However, given the weak demand, the downward trend in financing costs continues, and liquidity does not have a basis for a trend tightening [133]. Part IV: Interest Rate Bond Strategy - Interest rate bond trend: Since August, bond yields have generally shown an upward trend, mainly due to the rise of the stock market and the increase in bond interest income tax. The yield curve has become steeper, and the medium- and long-term spreads are relatively large [137][138][142]. - Investment strategy: Trading desks can seize repair opportunities when interest rates rise, while allocation desks can intervene when interest rates reach the upper limit of the range, and medium- and long-term bonds are more valuable for allocation [4].
债券市场2025年8月月报：震荡区间上移博弈修复机会-20250905
Nan Jing Yin Hang·2025-09-05 03:37