光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,714 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.32%. The spot market was weak, with prices in mainstream regions dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply was at a phased low, and demand was insufficient. Exports continued, and the market would fluctuate with Indian tender news. Futures prices were expected to continue wide - range oscillations [1]. - Soda ash futures prices were firm and oscillating on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,277 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot market quotes were mostly stable. This week, production increased by 4.55%, enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55%, but social inventory rose. Demand was weak and stable. Futures prices were expected to oscillate widely in the short term [1]. - Glass futures prices oscillated weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,139 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.09%. The spot market was stable. Supply was stable, and demand showed no obvious change. Inventory increased slightly by 0.77%. The market was expected to continue bottom - consolidation [1]. Market Information Urea - On September 4, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,928, an increase of 723 from the previous trading day, with 778 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 4, the daily urea production was 182,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous day and 1,000 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 77.79%, a decrease of 5.18 percentage points from 82.97% last year [4]. - On September 4, small - particle urea spot prices in various regions in China: Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Anhui was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Shanxi was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - On September 3, urea enterprise inventory was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 9,200 tons or 0.85% from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 4, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,934, a decrease of 298 from the previous trading day, with 1,268 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,132, an increase of 106 from the previous trading day [7]. - On September 4, soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, light soda ash was 1,220 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - As of September 4, the weekly soda ash production was 751,700 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons or 4.55%. The capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points [7]. - As of September 4, domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory was 1.8221 million tons, a decrease of 45,400 tons or 2.43% week - on - week [7]. - On September 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,156 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The daily production was 159,600 tons, also unchanged [7]. - As of September 4, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, an increase of 484,000 weight cases or 0.77% week - on - week, and a decrease of 11.77% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as urea and soda ash base differences, trading volume and open interest of main contracts, price trends of main contracts, spreads between different contracts, and spot price trends [9][11][15]