中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数下跌，能源品领跌-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest - rate cuts. There are still tail risks such as sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Real - estate policies in first - tier cities have been relaxed, with a relatively weak overall intensity, aiming to support developer liquidity. After important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market expectations of interest - rate cuts. The willingness of US consumers to buy real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuates widely at a low level, and real salary growth is flat. There are still tail risks [7]. - Domestic Macro: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has affected the profit distribution among industries. In the real - estate sector, first - tier cities have introduced policies to relax restrictions, with a relatively weak overall intensity and more relaxation in suburban new homes in core cities [7]. - Asset Views: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and non - US dollar assets are worth attention [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Market sentiment is ebbing, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention paid to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw is playing out again, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: The market is weak, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8]. - Iron Ore: The hot - metal production is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: The bearish sentiment is growing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Many coal mines stopped production yesterday, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price is at a low level, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to raw - material costs and steel tenders [8]. - Manganese Silicon: The cost support is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to be weak, with attention paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: The mid - stream inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to spot sales [8]. - Soda Ash: The production is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate again, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to soda - ash inventory [8]. - Copper: China and the US have extended the tariff suspension, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [8]. - Alumina: The spot market is weakly stable, and the warehouse receipts are increasing, and the market is expected to be under pressure, with attention paid to ore复产, electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme market trends [8]. - Aluminum: The social inventory is slightly accumulating, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: The prices of black - series products have fallen, and the zinc price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [8]. - Lead: The consumption situation is unclear, and the lead price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions and battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with attention paid to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply release [8]. - Stainless Steel: The price of ferronickel is rising, and the stainless - steel futures price is expected to decline, with attention paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - Tin: The raw - material supply is still tight, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Coal prices are fluctuating, and the silicon price is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with attention paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced, and the oil price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10]. - LPG: The valuation repair is over, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to cost - end developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: Crude - oil prices are fluctuating, and the upward trend of asphalt has slowed down, and the market is expected to decline, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price is fluctuating, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude - oil market, and the price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to crude - oil prices [10]. - Methanol: Port inventory is accumulating, and the olefin market is declining, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: The domestic supply - demand is relatively loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and export release, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to actual export implementation [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The low - inventory fundamentals and macro - sentiment are in a game, and the downward support is strong, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to coal and oil prices, port - inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - PX: The market atmosphere has cooled, and the upward support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and the peak - season demand [10]. - PTA: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand still supports the price, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and the peak - season demand [10]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream is观望, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to downstream yarn - mill purchasing and unexpected device production cuts [10]. - Bottle Chip: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to unexpected production increases and overseas export orders [10]. - Propylene: It follows the PP market in the short term, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - PP: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and the market is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Plastic: The oil price is falling, and the plastic price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: The spot rebound has slowed down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The market is continuously adjusting, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The protein - meal price is fluctuating narrowly, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The replenishment is over, and the market is expected to be weak, with attention paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Live Pigs: The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain low, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Rubber: The short - term driving force is not obvious, and the market is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - Pulp: The spot trading is light, and the core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - Cotton: The cotton price has support, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: The sugar price continues to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to imports [10]. - Logs: The spot price is falling, and the market is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to shipment volume and transportation volume [10].