需求支撑不足，猪价延续低位

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Expected to be volatile in the short term and likely to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein Meal: Expected to remain range - bound [5] - Corn and Starch: Short - term: Consider closing out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] - Hogs: Expected to be volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] - Natural Rubber: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] - Cotton: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long term; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile [16] - Logs: Expected to be weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex pattern with different trends for various products. The hog cycle is still in a downward phase in the short - to - medium term but may turn around in 2026 if de - capacity policies are implemented. Oils and fats are affected by factors such as weather, trade, and demand, with short - term volatility and medium - term upward potential. Protein meal is expected to remain range - bound. Other products like natural rubber, cotton, etc., also have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price trends [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Logic: Due to concerns about US soybean demand, US soybeans declined on Wednesday, and domestic oils continued to consolidate. The macro environment includes a weaker US dollar and falling crude oil prices. The US soybean growing area is affected by drought, and the export outlook is pessimistic. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally, and palm oil inventory accumulation may be limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [5] - Outlook: Short - term: Volatile adjustment; Medium - term: Likely to strengthen [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - Logic: International soybean prices are affected by weather, with a possible reduction in US soybean yields in the September report. Brazilian soybean premiums have adjusted, and US soybean exports are affected by the trade war. Domestically, the market is range - bound, and demand may improve as the temperature drops [5] - Outlook: Range - bound. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low levels [5] 3.3 Corn and Starch - Logic: Corn prices are generally stable, with local declines. Supply is affected by the release of old - crop inventory and the upcoming new - crop supply. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The price difference between corn and wheat is increasing, and wheat substitution may decline [6][7] - Outlook: Short - term: Close out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] 3.4 Hogs - Logic: Supply is abundant in the short term, with an expected increase in the second half of the year. Demand shows a stable ratio of fat to lean pigs. Inventory weight has decreased slightly. In the long term, de - capacity policies may drive price increases in 2026 if implemented [1][7] - Outlook: Volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] 3.5 Natural Rubber - Logic: The price is range - bound between 157 - 161. There are many speculation themes, and the short - term supply is limited while demand is stable. The price may rise due to seasonality [10] - Outlook: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The price is range - bound, following natural rubber and supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. Butadiene supply is under no significant pressure, and demand is stable [11] - Outlook: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] 3.7 Cotton - Logic: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for cotton prices. The expected increase in purchase prices is limited by the expected large increase in new cotton production. After new cotton is on the market, prices may face downward pressure [11][12] - Outlook: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] 3.8 Sugar - Logic: International sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic imports are rising, resulting in downward pressure on prices [15] - Outlook: Long - term: Volatile and slightly bearish; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] 3.9 Pulp - Logic: The decline is mainly due to the low acceptance of BCTMP pulp. After the 09 contract delivery, the pressure may be alleviated. The market shows a differentiated performance among different types of pulp [16] - Outlook: Volatile [16] 3.10 Logs - Logic: The price decline is due to lower foreign quotes and weaker domestic spot prices. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. Supply pressure will ease in the coming weeks [17][18] - Outlook: Weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18]