Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the gold market, analyzing the reasons for gold price fluctuations and providing future price outlooks [1][3][7] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Gold prices are in a high - level oscillation, with multiple factors contributing to an upward trend. The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks [1][7] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Multiple Fed officials believe labor - market concerns are the main reason for future rate cuts. Trump is still committed to promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's government asked the Supreme Court to rule on tariff - collection rights [2] Price Logic - US economic data in August was mixed. Weak employment data strengthened the rate - cut expectation in September, while strong service - sector data added uncertainty. The market is waiting for non - farm payroll data, and the "August effect" may make the 9 - month rate - cut expectation fluctuate [3] Political and Policy Uncertainty - Concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political influence on the easing path, along with fiscal risks from tariff issues, provide support for gold [4] Future Outlook - Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3350, 3600], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [38, 42] [7] Commodity Index - On September 4, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The precious - metals index fell 0.31% on the day, rose 3.73% in the past 5 days, 4.18% in the past month, and 28.75% year - to - date [45][47]
弱就业与服务业韧性博弈，褐?书关税压?及美联储独?性与财政?险交
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-05 05:12