Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a record high but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance sheet for 25/26 US soybeans. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a high level, and the impact of recent weather on it is expected to be limited. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is rising and in a cumulative inventory cycle. The short - term demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories, but downstream transactions are cautious. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to be supported by the tight supply - demand balance sheet, and the MO1 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - Basis: The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang is 20/21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions has different values and changes, such as - 8 in Zhangjiagang, - 68 in Dongguan, etc. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 10 with a change of 7. [6] - Spread: The RM1 - 5 spread is 131. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong is 300 with a change of - 16, and the spread in the main contract is 412 with a change of - 3 [7] Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre but cut the 25/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory is reduced to 290 million bushels. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The September domestic soybean arrival is expected to be over 10 million tons, and the soybean meal is expected to be in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level [7] Demand - Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. The policy aims to control live pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume. Wheat replacing corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream soybean meal transactions this week are cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory is rising. The inventory level is lower than last year but still in a cumulative inventory cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market Outlook and Strategy - With no progress in Sino - US talks, the stabilization and rebound of Brazilian logistics, and less precipitation in the US soybean production area, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, supporting the CBOT soybean futures. Under the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250905
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-05 05:17