Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different commodities having their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends. Some commodities are expected to be under pressure, while others may have opportunities for price increases or remain in a state of shock. Market participants need to pay attention to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Category Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 11 - contract down 0.76%. The increase in US EIA crude oil inventories last week was bearish for the market. Considering the increase in OPEC+ production in September and the weakening demand after the peak season, the supply - demand balance may turn negative. It is recommended to hold short positions in the SC11 contract [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third - batch quota release was delayed, and the supply pressure of LU eased. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: After the end of the gas off - season, it shows certain resilience. Import cost increases and domestic demand rebounds, but high - level warehouse receipts pressure the market. The short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22] - Natural Gas: Not mentioned in the content - Coal: - Coke: The price rebounded during the day. The first round of price cuts in the coking industry partially landed. The overall inventory decreased slightly, and the price is affected by policy expectations and is under short - term pressure [16] - Coking Coal: The price rebounded during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased. The price is affected by policy expectations and is under short - term pressure [17] - Urea: The Indian NFL urea tender price was announced, and the supply in the domestic market is sufficient. The market is expected to operate in a shock. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of the Indian tender [23] - Methanol: The night - session price rose. Import volume remained high, and port and inland inventories increased. Although the current situation is weak, the market expectation is strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24] - Pure Benzene: The night - session price rebounded. The domestic supply increased, and the demand was weak. The supply - demand situation may improve in the third quarter, but the upside is limited [25] - Benzene Ethylene: The cost support is insufficient, and the supply - demand situation is average. There is high inventory pressure at the wharf [26] - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The demand for propylene is weak, and the supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is relatively loose. The market lacks a strong one - sided trend driver [27] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is running weakly, with increasing supply and inventory. Caustic soda is in a wide - range shock, with low inventory but supply pressure [28] - PX & PTA: The night - session prices were in a weak shock. The terminal demand is improving, but the growth space of PX production is limited [29] - Ethylene Glycol: The price rebounded due to the news of postponed new - device production. The supply and demand are mixed, and the downward resistance increases [30] - Short Fibre & Bottle Chip: Short - fibre supply and demand are stable, and the price follows the cost. Bottle - chip profit is passively repaired, but there is long - term over - capacity pressure [31] - Glass: The price is in a shock. The factory inventory increased due to logistics control, and the demand improvement is limited [32] - 20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber: The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to wait and see [33] - Soda Ash: The price is in a shock. The industry inventory increased, and the long - term supply is under high pressure. It is advisable to short at high prices [34] Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight US economic data was mixed. The ADP employment number was lower than expected, while the ISM services PMI was higher. The precious metals market was strong, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data [2] - Base Metals: - Copper: The overnight copper price fell. The market is concerned about the US non - farm payroll data and copper demand. Short - term long positions can be held [3] - Aluminium: The overnight price continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate increased seasonally, and the price is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan [4] - Alumina: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply is in surplus. The price is running weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at 2,830 yuan [5] - Cast Aluminium Alloy: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminium, and the price difference between spot and futures may narrow [6] - Zinc: The fundamentals are bearish, with increasing supply and weak demand. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [7] - Lead: The cost and consumption are in a game, and the market direction is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The price of Shanghai Nickel is in a weak shock. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel decreased. The price may be affected by the political situation in Indonesia [9] - Tin: The overnight tin price fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. The price of Shanghai Tin followed the decline, and short - term long positions can be held at low levels [10] - Lithium Carbonate: The price is in a low - level shock, and the market trading is dull. The downstream increased inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price is in a shock. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is mainly driven by emotions [12] - Polysilicon: The futures price fluctuates around 52,000 yuan/ton. The market is dominated by emotions, and the price is expected to be under pressure [13] - Iron Ore: The overnight price fluctuated. Global shipments increased, and the demand from the steel industry decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15] - Manganese Silicon: The price opened low and rebounded. The demand from the iron and steel industry is high, and the production of manganese silicon increased. The price is expected to be supported [18] - Silicon Iron: The price opened low and rebounded. The demand is fair, and the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly [19] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Long - term, the market is cautiously bullish [35] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The prices fluctuate, waiting for new drivers. They can be considered for buying at low prices in the long term [36] - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed is under harvest pressure, and the domestic rapeseed market is in a tight - balance state. The futures price may stabilize in the short term [37] - Soybean No. 1: The price of domestic soybeans fluctuates. Pay attention to the new - season soybean opening price and trade policies [38] - Corn: The Dalian corn futures price rebounded. The new - season corn is expected to be a good harvest, and the price may be strong in the short term and weak at the bottom in the long term [39] - Hogs: The futures price decreased, and the supply pressure is dominant. The price may continue to decline, but demand may be supported during festivals [40] - Eggs: The futures price fluctuates. The spot price rose, and the industry is accelerating capacity reduction. Consider long positions in the far - month contracts [41] - Cotton: The US cotton price fluctuates, and the production may increase. The Zhengzhou cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42] - Sugar: The US sugar price continued to fall, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43] - Apples: The futures price fluctuates. The short - term price may rise due to the good performance of early - maturing apples, but the long - term supply is not bullish [44] - Timber: The price is in a downward shock. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45] - Pulp: The futures price rose slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46] Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock market weakened yesterday, and the futures index contracts fell. The short - term market may change from a smooth upward trend to a shock - upward trend. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury Bonds: The futures price of treasury bonds rose. The bond supply in September is at a high level. The yield curve is expected to steepen [48]
国投期货综合晨报-20250905
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-05 05:40