镍与不锈钢日评：关注印尼动荡变化-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 4th, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest, and a 0.29% decline in LME nickel. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, a decrease in nickel ore arrivals last week, and an increase in port inventories. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. The demand side showed a decrease in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with repeated expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Indonesian unrest, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on September 4th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated at a low level, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. The spot market had weak low - price trading, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. On the supply side, stainless - steel production will increase in September. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. At the cost end, the prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome have risen. Overall, the current macro - sentiment has a greater impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to previous days, with the near - month contract closing at 121450 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,598 lots (- 20,952), and the open interest was 82,558 lots (- 2,171). The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel contracts (electronic and on - site) decreased, with the electronic - disk closing at 15,236 dollars/ton, down 68 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 5,254 lots (- 645). The price ratio of Shanghai and LME nickel futures was 7.96, down 0.03 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products (such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel) decreased. For example, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract decreased by 50 yuan to 2,050 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were stable. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. Demand: Ternary production decreased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - SHFE nickel inventory decreased to 21,739 tons (- 121 tons), LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat at 4,100 tons [2] 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,009 lots (+ 11,460), and the open interest was 82,425 lots (- 4,439) [2] 3.2.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various stainless - steel products (such as 304/2B coil - trimmed, 304/No.1 coil) decreased in some regions. The low - price trading in the spot market was weak, and the basis premium widened [2] 3.2.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production will increase in September. Demand: Terminal demand is weak [1] 3.2.4 Inventory - SHFE stainless - steel inventory increased to 100,431 tons (+ 127 tons), and the 300 - series social inventory decreased to 622,700 tons (- 3,300 tons) [2] 3.3 Other Information - The US 8 - month "small non - farm" data was 54,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 people, and the previous value was revised up from 104,000 to 106,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased to 237,000, the highest level since June [1] - Centaurus Metals encountered unexpected obstacles in the development of its flagship Jaguar nickel project in Brazil. The company was informed that it needed to upgrade the power transmission to meet the long - term energy needs of the mine. The Jaguar project has 1.2 million tons of nickel content [1]