尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250905

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract of urea futures. Although the current domestic situation is one of strong supply and weak demand, from a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. Looking at the driving factors, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, with about 20% of urea plants being over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing of Sino - Indian relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On September 4, UR01 closed at 1,714 yuan/ton with no change; UR05 was at 1,753 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.23%); UR09 was at 1,664 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.36%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In Shandong, the spot price was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it was 1,610 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%); in Hebei, it was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.16%); in the Northeast, it was 1,730 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%) [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread was -39 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5,134 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5,300 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Information of the Main Contract On the previous trading day, the main contract 2601 of urea futures opened at 1,712 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1,718 yuan/ton, a low of 1,706 yuan/ton, closed at 1,714 yuan/ton, and had a settlement price of 1,713 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 260,100 tons, and the open interest was 234,351 lots [1].