日度策略参考-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures basis widens again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustment may bring long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Short - term gold price may shift to high - level consolidation, but the long - term center of gravity still has upward space; silver may run at a high level in the short term but has the risk of increased volatility [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates due to weak domestic downstream demand in the off - season and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut; zinc price has limited downside space despite inventory pressure; nickel price follows the macro trend in the short term and long - term surplus pressure remains [1]. - Stainless steel futures fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills; tin price is strong in the short term; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have their own market characteristics and influencing factors [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro drivers; iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts; coal and coke prices are under pressure [1]. - Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to run in a volatile manner; rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed; cotton price may range - bound in the short term; sugar supply is expected to be loose; corn has limited short - term rebound and downward space in the medium term [1]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy - related products are affected by geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; various chemical products such as PTA, short - fiber, and styrene have their own market trends and influencing factors [1]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals; copper price is expected to rise; some products like soda ash and ethylene glycol face supply - surplus pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: No clear trend judgment provided [1]. - Gold: Short - term high - level consolidation, long - term upward space [1]. - Silver: Short - term high - level operation with increased volatility risk [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Fluctuates due to domestic demand and Fed rate - cut expectation, pay attention to far - month long - position opportunities [1]. - Zinc: Limited downside space, be cautious about short - selling in the short term [1]. - Nickel: Follows macro trend in the short term, long - term surplus pressure exists, focus on short - term trading and selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term weak fluctuations, pay attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: Strong in the short term [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply resumes, high hedging pressure, polysilicon production cut expected [1]. - Polysilicon: Capacity reduction expected in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, good profit [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Frequent resource - end disturbances, large short - term downstream replenishment, limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Ferrous metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, warm macro drivers [1]. - Iron ore: Upward opportunities in far - month contracts [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Prices are under pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil and soybean oil: Expected to run in a volatile manner, consider exiting long positions [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Recommended to observe [1]. - Cotton: Short - term range - bound [1]. - Sugar: Supply expected to be loose, price with upper - bound pressure [1]. - Corn: Limited short - term rebound, downward space in the medium term [1]. - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1]. - Log: Weakly fluctuating [1]. - Pig: Bearish due to increased supply and lower costs [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Affected by geopolitics, OPEC+ policies, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - PTA: Production resumes, price difference expands, and short - term upward momentum is strong [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory overhauls increase, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - Styrene: Bearish due to industry reform rumors and weakening market transactions [1]. - Urea: Limited upside space, supported by cost [1]. - PVC: Fluctuates weakly, with supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: Affected by international oil prices, CP prices, and downstream profit conditions [1]. Others - Shipping: Supply exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates decline [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals put pressure on prices [1]. - Copper: Expected to rise, consider stopping profit for spot - futures positive spread [1]. - Soda ash: Bearish due to supply surplus [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Affected by industry reform rumors and hedging pressure [1].