丙烯日报：丙烯下游利润承压，开工环比下降-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure, and demand follow - up is weak. There are no suggestions for inter - period and cross - variety investments [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: The overall propylene start - up has little change. Some PDH devices in Hebei and Shandong have restart expectations, while some in Shandong and Qingdao have delays or continued maintenance. The recent tightening of propylene external sales still supports prices, and the supply pressure is expected to ease later. - Demand side: The profits of propylene downstream have significantly narrowed, and the overall start - up has declined month - on - month. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price has fallen. The Saudi CP propane price in September is flat month - on - month, and the external propane trend is strong [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profits and Start - up Rates - Figures cover propylene CFR in China minus naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [14][22][24] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profits - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profits and Start - up Rates - Figures show the production profits and start - up rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report provides figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]