油脂日报：油脂多空交织，价格静待驱动-20250905

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]