甲醇日报：港口库存压力仍大，传统下游开工再度回落-20250905

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continues to rise rapidly, especially in Jiangsu. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. - The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol in the inland areas has passed, and the production of coal - based methanol has further increased. The inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid continue to decline, and the operating rate of formaldehyde remains low. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures showing the basis between methanol spot in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, including methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and the import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [6][27] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated plants) are presented. The port inventory is increasing, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 760,000 tons (+88,500 tons). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 84.72% (-0.63%). The inland factory inventory is also rising, with the Longzhong inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons). [2][3][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows the price differences between different regions, such as the price differences between northern Shandong and the northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. For example, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton). [3][6][40] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][51] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see. [4]