新能源及有色金属日报：市场对美联储降息计价过于饱和，铜价暂陷震荡格局-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Core View of the Report - In September, there are relatively large disturbances on the supply side, such as a decrease in the circulation of scrap copper and a concentrated period of smelter maintenance. Although the downstream performance is not outstanding, the support from the power grid for demand still exists. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 80,000 yuan/ton and closed at 79,770 yuan/ton, a -0.42% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 79,680 yuan/ton and closed at 79,650 yuan/ton, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: The spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 60 - 300 yuan/ton, with an average of 180 yuan/ton, a 10 yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price was 79,950 - 80,430 yuan/ton. The import loss was maintained at 300 - 400 yuan/ton, and the BACK structure continued. The market procurement sentiment was weak, but the concentrated arrival of imports boosted the sales sentiment. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper dropped to 80 yuan/ton, and the price in Jiangsu was pressured to 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Low - priced goods such as African and Kazakh copper had good transactions. It is expected that the stocking demand on Friday may support the premium with limited decline [2] - Important Information Summary: US economic data showed weak employment but strong service industry expansion. Weak employment data significantly increased the marginal expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% expectation of a September rate cut according to Fedwatch [3] Supply - Side Information - Mine End: Freeport - McMoRan is promoting three expansion projects and researching a technology innovation. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand the Baghdad copper mine in Arizona, with a possible investment decision by the end of 2025 and expected production in 2029. It may increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile. The El Abra expansion plan involves a $7.5 billion investment with a target production time of 2033. The company hopes to extract an additional 800 million pounds (about 363,000 tons) of copper per year by 2030 through a "low - cost copper extraction technology" and is researching a "new additive" to improve copper recovery. The company also calls on the US government to increase incentives for domestic copper producers and shorten project approval time [4] - Smelting and Import: In September, China's refined copper market has a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predict a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in production, the first such decline in September since 2016. The reasons are the new tax policy reducing scrap copper processing profits and the peak of smelter equipment maintenance. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% [5] Demand - Side Information - Consumption: At the end of the month, downstream cable enterprises face increased capital pressure, high copper prices suppress orders, and the demand for enameled wires is weak. The raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 3.27 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 6.8 tons. It is expected that demand will pick up next week, and the substitution effect of refined copper rods may increase. In the wire and cable industry, high copper prices at the beginning of the week suppressed order release, and most enterprises focused on completing existing orders, with only a few making advance purchases due to bullish expectations. The power grid demand provides support, while other industries are still in the off - season [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 158,375 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 358 tons to 19,829 tons. On September 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 140,600 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Related Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 copper, today's premium is 180 (compared to 190 yesterday, 205 last week, 180 one month ago); premium copper 285; flat - water copper 75; wet - process copper - 20; Yangshan premium 60 [26] | | LME (0 - 3) | - 67 (compared to - 70 yesterday, - 90 last week, - 49 one month ago) [26] | | Inventory | LME: 158,375 tons; SHFE: 79,748 tons; COMEX: 258,003 tons [27] | | Warehouse Receipts | SHFE warehouse receipts: 19,829 tons; LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio: 8.53% [27] | | Arbitrage | CU11 - CU09 (continuous three - near - month): - 120; CU10 - CU09: - 30; CU09/AL09: 3.87; CU09/ZN09: 3.61 [27] | | Import Profit | - 48 (compared to - 53 yesterday, 331 last week, - 149 one month ago) [28] | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main Contract) | 8.03 (compared to 7.96 yesterday, 8.10 last week, 8.14 one month ago) [28] |