贵金属日报：ADP就业数据疲软，降息预期再升温-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Weak employment data in the US has significantly increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% chance of a rate cut in September according to Fedwatch [1] - The weakening employment data and rising easing expectations are favorable for gold prices, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow due to the rising rate cut expectations and the industrial attributes of silver in a pro-cyclical context [1][8] Market Analysis - In August, the ADP employment in the US increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [1] - The ISM services PMI in the US in August was 52, with the new orders index jumping 5.7 points to 56, the largest increase since September last year [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was not provided, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,851.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,773.00 yuan/kg, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 788,714 lots, and the open interest was 248,568 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.159%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.571%, down 0.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions increased by 246 lots and the short positions increased by 222 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 475,014 lots, up 13.86% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,537,386 lots, up 36.19% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15,230.57 tons, down 50.83 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -16.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -913.19 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.19, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.56, up 0.85% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 73,492 kg, up 4.59% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 580,972 kg, up 55.37% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 18,670 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,270 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract may oscillate between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract may oscillate between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]